Research On Implement Potentials And Spread Effects Of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) In China

As one of the three mechanism stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) refers mainly to the developed countries` project level cooperation with the developing countries by means of providing funding and technology. Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) achieved in this project can help the developed countries realize the commitment of reducing greenhouse gas emission. Since China is one of the developing countries with the largest potential of reducing greenhouse gas emssion and with good investment environment, the market prospect of CDM projects in China is broad. Furthermore, the realization of the coordination and sustainable development of economy, society and environment is a long-term strategic objective of Chinese government. Therefore, the study of comprehensive evaluation of CDM is of great significance for China.This paper develop a kind of model that can help assess CDM project potential and effects in China, analyse its cost and benefit and its spread effect, which can provide scientific proof and reliable data information for formulating relevant CDM policies. This model consists of two components:comprehensive evaluation model of energy-environment system and analysis model of optimal CDM potentiality.Using a top-down approach, we develop an evaluation model of energy-economy system. Using a bottom-up approach, based on terminal energy technology to develop energy technology model which takes the CDM effect into consideration. Finally, coupling the two models by integrated evaluation method, we develop a comprehensive evaluation model of energy-environment-economy system. On the basis of this model, we evaluate Implement Potentials and Spread Effects of Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) in China. The results demonstrate that the potential for CDM in China is great and the implementation of CDM plays a positive part in adjusting energy and power source structures, conserving energy and reducing SO2, NOx emission. In addition, the potential for CDM will weaken with CERs reaching to a certain value.