Research On Energy System Optimization In Beijing Tianjin Hebei Based On Energy-Economy-Environment Model

With the economic and social development and the continuous promotion of electric power substitution in various industries,the impact of electric power on industrial production and residents’ life is increasing.The increasingly complex international situation,serious environmental pollution and scarce energy resources will affect China’s energy security and clean supply.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to make full use of the resource endowment of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and optimize its energy supply system.The coordinated development of energy and power system in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is also of great significance to the coordinated development of economy-energy-environment and the coordinated and integrated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.According to the economic,social and energy development status of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,based on the future global energy system transformation and the development direction of China’s energy revolution,this paper explores the optimal low-carbon transformation development path of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei energy power system under different development scenarios.Firstly,the research status of low-carbon economy theory,low-carbon transformation and energy system optimization at home and abroad is reviewed.Secondly,the function modules and general algorithms of leap model are briefly introduced.Based on the model theory,the power demand forecasting model of Beijing Tianjin Hebei and the energy power system optimization model are constructed.Then,the status of energy production and consumption as well as renewable energy resources in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed.On this basis,the relevant input parameters of the model are assumed under the benchmark scenario,policy scenario,energy saving scenario,emission reduction constraint benchmark scenario,emission reduction constraint policy scenario,high carbon price policy scenario and renewable energy consumption policy scenario.Finally,the power demand forecast of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region under different development scenarios and the transformation development direction of power system energy structure under different energy policy scenarios are discussed.According to the discussion of different development scenarios in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,it is found that the introduction of corresponding policies by the government to actively adjust the industrial structure,control population and implement high-quality economic development is conducive to energy saving and consumption reduction of various industrial sectors and slowing down the growth of power demand;Under the policy scenario,the energy structure of the system is gradually transforming to the direction of low-carbon and clean;The government’s mandatory emission reduction constraints and renewable energy consumption targets can more effectively guarantee the reduction of carbon emissions.