Study On Carbon Dioxide Emission Carrying Capacity Ratio In Qingdao

With the development of economy，the problem of climate change which ismainly caused by greenhouse gas emission such as carbon dioxide emission hasattracted extensive attention in the international. In order to reduce carbon emission,the developed countries especially the European Union promote the contribution andthe operation of the carbon credits market. Those cuntries also compete in theinternational carbon assets pricing, and set up Green Barrier in international trade,especially in trade with the developing countries. So carbon dioxide emission hasnot only been environmental problem, but also been a social and economic issue.Based on the summary of the domestic and foreign relevant research, this paperintroduced the research methods of carrying capacity in the study of carbon dioxideemission. Firstly, the concept of carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratio inQingdao was defined. Secondly, the index system and evaluation model of carbondioxide emission carrying capacity ratio in Qingdao were constructed and applied.Finally, we analyzed the correlation between carbon dioxide emission carryingcapacity ratio and coordinated development level. The main conclusions are:（1）In the view of human’s sustainable development, Qingdao’s carbondioxide emission carrying capacity ratio is the carrying capacity ratio of carbondioxide emission in the city complex ecosystem of Qingdao in a certain period in thecondition of keeping the stability of its struction and function, namely the ratio ofcarbon dioxide emissions pressure and carrying capacity of the city. It regards thepeople as the core of the city ecosystem, believes that the purpose of the study is tofind the factors that influence the carbon dioxide emission and the state of carbondioxide emission carrying capacity in Qingdao. Emitting carbon dioxide as little aspossible is not the best choice. The devotion to zero carbon dioxide emissions isneither practical nor necessary. Keeping the balance between pressure and upward force of carbon dioxide emission will not cause adverse effect on the sustainabledevelopment of the human.(2) The evaluation index system of carbon dioxide emission carrying capacityratio and pressure and carrying capacity index of carbon dioxide emission wereconstructed. The evaluation index system is consisted of five layers and foursubsystems. The five layers are destination, points target, rule, index and points indexlayer. The four subsystems are resource, environment, economy and society system.Analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weight method were used in theweighting of indexes. Carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratio in Qingdao iscarbon dioxide emissions pressure divided by carbon dioxide emissions carryingcapacity. The carbon dioxide emissions carrying capacity ratio can be divided intofive ranks: serious no-load, mild no-load, appropriate load, mild overload and seriousoverload. Each level was given certain warning flags. Serious no-load and overloadindicate the lowest coordinated development level, while mild no-load and mildoverload demonstrate lower coordinated development level, and appropriate loadcorrespond to high coordinated development level.(3) The carbon dioxide emission pressure dropt from2000to2005in Qingdao,increased in2006, fell in2007and rose fairly rapidly in2008-2009. In2000-2004,2006and2007, the biggest pressure came from the society factors. In2005,2008and2009, the biggest pressure came from the environment factors. In2009, economyfactors, surpassing society and resource factors, became the secondary pressure.Theeconomy development effected the carbon dioxide emission pressure more and moreafter2005. Energy consumption was the major factor in2000-2004, while pollutantemission was the first factor after2004.(4) Qingdao’s carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity increased in2000-2005, declined slightly in2006, increased modestly in2007and rose rapidly in2008-2009. In the process, resource factor was the major factor and the role ofresource and environment factors were greater than the role of economic and socialdevelopment factors. From2000to2009the carrying capacities increased gradually.The blue resource factor, economy structure factor, water pollution control factor, financial support factor, economy development level factor were the key factors in2000,2001,2002,2005and2007,2004and2008-2009. Recnt years, the rise ofcarbon dioxide emission carrying capacity was mainly affected by the water pollutioncontrol and economy development. After2006, the effect of rapid economydevelopment was very significant, but the role of science and education level andfinancial support factors should be improved.(5) The overall carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratio of Qingdao roseslightly in2001and fell rapidly after2002.Its minimum occured in2005. The carbondioxide emission ratio increased in2006and it was basically unchanged after the briefdip in2007. Qingdao’s carbon dioxide emission loading conditions from2000to2001was in serious overload state. It was in mild overload state in2002and2003, in mildno-load state in2005and2007-2009. And it was in appropriate load state in otheryears. First and last, carbon dioxide emission loading were in good trend after2004.The correlation of social and economic factors and overall loading status is strongerthan the correlation of resources and environment factors and overall loading status.（6）The coordination degree index and coordinated development index wereestablished by the indexes of resource, environment, economy and society subsystems.The analysis of the indexes showed that the overall coordination development levelpromoted step by step from2001to2009. The overall coordination degree was about1.9from2005to2009. The overall coordination development level was not high andit was basically in a moderate disorder recession state.（7）The study on carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratio aims at thecoordinated and sustainable development of resource, environment, economy andsociety subsystems. The balance of carbon dioxide emission pressure and carryingcapacity should be based on the coordinated development. The main problem existingin Qingdao was overload from2000to2009. According to the definition andcategories of the carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratio, its value shoulddecline with the improvement of coordinated development level. The result ofcorrelation analysis between Qingdao’s carbon dioxide emission carrying capacityratio and the coordinated development index in the same period indicated that they were negative correlation. So the carbon dioxide emission carrying capacity ratiomethod in this paper is rationality to some extent.（8）In view of the goals of sustainable development, Qingdao should adjust theindustrial structure, transform the mode of economic development, establish thelong-term mechanism of low carbon development, protect resources and environment,develop new energy and adjust the energy consume structure, develop low carbontourism and further improve the regional carbon dioxide emission carrying capacitytheory system and so on.