The Empirical Analysis Of China’s International Trade’s Effect On Carbon Dioxide Emission

In recent years, with the growth of greenhouse gases emission, global climate caused widespread concern around the world. To improve the situation of global warming, all the countries around the world have given high priority and taken active measures. Due to rapid economic development in China, and which is known as the "World Factory", some Western countries have required China to bear a lot of responsibility for carbon dioxide emissions. With the pace of China’s reform and opening up, the international trade has increased rapidly. In2013, China became the world’s largest goods trading nation. China ranks first in global carbon dioxide emissions, but nearly a third of which is generated due to the export trade. So in order to reduce the carbon dioxide emission, the research of the impact of and international trade of carbon dioxide emissions has great significance.Combing through research status at home and abroad, the paper found that the current domestic research on the impact of import and export trade for carbon dioxide emissions mainly in the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions which is hidden in the international trade. And they use the linear model research the relationship between international trade and carbon dioxide emission from the perspective of the country as a whole degree. But few empirical studies have examined the import and export trade from the perspective of nonlinear effects of carbon dioxide emissions pairs. As technology advances and institutional change, and with the sample data heterogeneity, the linear model is difficult to meet this requirement, so this paper use the panel smooth transfer model to study the nonlinear effects of import and export trade of carbon dioxide emissions.Firstly the paper analyses the status of China’s carbon dioxide emissions and the import and export trade respectively. For the current situation of carbon dioxide emission, the paper analyses from total, industry analysis and international comparisons perspective. The paper describes the scale of the import and export trade and trade structure. And from a statistical point of view, it amylases the relationship between import and export trade and carbon dioxide emission, then discovering they have same trend. Secondly, from three regions of the eastern, central and western, the paper analyzes how export-and import affect the three regions’carbon dioxide emission by a linear model. And it analyzes the effect’s economic sense. Thirdly the paper establishes overall China’s panel smooth transition model, using trade scale and trade structure for transferring variables respectively, it analyzes nonlinear effects of import and export trade on carbon dioxide emissions. It also analyzes the results of the economic significance of the estimate again.Through this study, We get the following main conclusions:the current status of our country is the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions is large, but carbon dioxide emissions per capita is far below the level of the world’s major developed countries in the same period. The intensity of carbon dioxide emissions is much lower than the world’s average level in the same time. The total carbon dioxide emissions in eastern is maximum. The total scale of foreign trade is growing steadily. Although the trade structure has slightly improved, but the leader role of trade structure has not changed which is the processing trade, the main export of high pollution, high energy consumption and low trade value-added industry.In different regions, import and export trade have different effects on carbon dioxide emissions. In the eastern and central parts, development of the export trade will lead to increased emissions of carbon dioxide, the development of import trade helps to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions, while the import and export trade of the western region had no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. So, for different regions the government should develop different policies.Import and export trade have significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions from nonlinear relationship, when trade scale as the transfer variable, export trade will lead to increased domestic carbon dioxide emissions, but with the expansion of trade scale, the degree of the export’s influence on carbon dioxide emissions decreases; import trade helps to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions, with the expansion of trade scale, the degree of the import’s influence on carbon dioxide emissions increases. When trade structure as the transfer variable, export trade will lead to increased domestic carbon dioxide emissions, and the irrational trade structure makes exports nonlinear effects on carbon dioxide emissions far greater than the linear part. So adjustment of the trade structure to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions plays an important role; both linear and nonlinear aspects, the import trade helps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.According to the estimated results of this paper, we propose the following policy recommendations:optimize the industrial structure and promote the development of low-carbon trade industry; promote technological progress to improve energy efficiency and the development of new energy sources; apply different trade policy in different areas.