Quantitative Analysis, Evaluation And Simulation Research On Industrial Ecosystem

Industrial ecosystem is a new artificial system established by the industrialsystem under the guidance of the industrial ecology theory. Qualitative studies on theindustrial ecosystem are, at present, more than quantitative studies, and the researchperspective is relatively narrow, mostly about Ecological Industry Park, seldomrelating to meso scale of industrial ecosystem namely a specific area. EcologicalIndustry Park is greatly restricted by geography, and the more mature industry regionis, the stronger practice of constructing industrial ecosystem will be.This paper first makes analysis of the characteristics of industrial ecosystem, andelaborates its quantitative calculation methods. It establishes an index system forindustrial ecosystem evaluation, as well as employs system dynamics to buildindustrial ecosystem simulation models combined with the characteristics of industrialecosystem. Besides, it takes the prefecture-level city with meso scale namely matureindustries Xuzhou as the research object for empirical research. The main researchresults are as follows:Three basic quantitative characteristics of industrial ecosystem are proposedcombined with the characteristics of natural ecosystem: ecological carrying capacity,industrial diversity and domination coordination and ecological efficiency.As for ecological carrying capacity calculation, it modifies the calculationformula for ecological carrying capacity can not reflect seed optimization andtechnical progress. The results of the empirical study on Xuzhou show that theecological carrying capacity of Xuzhou City after modification from1995to2010isoverall in the upward trend except certain fluctuations in a few years have.Empirical researches on the three characteristics of industrial ecosystem showthat the ecological footprint of Xuzhou City from1994to2010increases gradually,especially due to rapid industrial development since2002. However, it began toappear ecological deficit in an upward trend as years went by from2003. Industrialdiversity and domination coordination degree has fluctuations. The dominant industryin Xuzhou City has been formed, and the industrial diversity and dominationcoordination degree has been slightly fluctuating for more than a decade, butgenerally it first increases and then drops. From1995to2010, the ecologicalefficiency of Xuzhou City has increased significantly, particularly in recent two years.An index system is established for industrial ecological system health evaluation based on the three basic characteristics of industrial ecosystem. The study resultsshow that social development subsystem of Xuzhou City over ten years has beensignificantly improved; industrial economical subsystem development is relativelyslow; environmental strain subsystem is not optimistic, sustainable developmentsupporting subsystem is in a state of fluctuation. Industrial ecological system ofXuzhou City is the evolution period from level to level two.System dynamics is adopted as a tool to establish simulation models of industrialecosystem. The results of simulation models of industrial ecosystem simulatingXuzhou City reflect that the future social development subsystem of Xuzhou City willhave a certain level of improvement, but the improvement room is restricted. Besides,industrial economical system and environmental strain system have not notably takena road to the direction of sound and rapid development after a long time evolution.On the base of above, analysis disadvantageous factors of Xuzhou City. Inaddition, it also puts forward the regulatory strategies for the sound development ofindustrial ecosystem of Xuzhou City combined with the limiting factors discovered bythe simulation model.