Evaluation On The Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Muping In Yanta

With the increasingly highlight of contradiction among economic development, resources and the environment, how to achieve the harmony and sustainable development of economic, environmental and social has become an important problem to be solved. Natural capacity to carry human activity and its load situation is the important criterion and decision-making basis for the coordinated development of society, economic and nature carrying capacity. Therefore, carrying capacity study inciuding ECC is currently being pushed to the forefront of sustainable development research, particularly on the quantitative assessment of capacity. At present the recognized evaluation technology system of regional ecological capacity has not yet been formed.According to theory of ecological carrying capacity, as Muping called new city of east in Yantai province studied, the indicators for evaluating regional ECC were put forward, which included resources supplying ability, environmental carrying capacity and social supporting ability. According to principal component analysis theory, with the use of SPSS, the indicators of Muping ECC have been collinearity analyzed, and resources supplying ability, environmental carrying capacity and social supporting ability have been calculated.The ECC has been evaluated by gray fuzzy evaluation model which composed that the three indicaters were determined by AHP, the degree of membership in judge was based on gray correlation and the comprehensive indexes of Muping ECC were evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. According to the findings, the measures and recommendations to improve the regional ecological carrying capacity has been proposed.The conclusions are as follows:1. Natural resources of the study area are over-exploitation, and locally available resources have been in short supply. During2002-2009, the index of resources supplying ability has changed from1.520to-1.934. The main factors include per capita arable land area decreasing, per capita water resources declining, land yields increasing which leads to serious loss of soil nutrients and fertility and so on.2. Study area has been polluted seriously, and the ecosystem self-purification process is far behind the speed of environmental pollution, resulting in that environmental carrying capacity has reduced to a negative state. During2002-2009, the index of environmental carrying capacity has changed from1.527to-1.235. The main factors include that the annual emission of ammonia and the use of fertilizer have been growing in number and lossing to the environment which made a serious impact on the ecological environment.3. Environmental protection has increasingly emphasised since economic development has promoted rapidly, which played a positive role in ecosystem. During2002-2009, the index of social supporting ability has changed from1.349to-1.347. The main factors include those forest cover, the recycling rate of industrial water and per capita GDP have been increasing in varying degrees, the amount of coal in industry has fall up at the same time.4. During2002-2009, the index of ECC has changed from1.340to-0.879. The results show that the ECC turned from the upper to the negative and the ecosystem has entered a state of over-exploitation. The main resulting factors include over-exploitation of natural resources and environmental pollution. However, the local human support capacity is also at a low level, which can only alleviate the reduced speed of ECC. It has restricted the sustainable development of the local economy.5. Compared to traditional research methods, the assessment methods and models of ECC used in this study is innovative. The PC A has been applied to the screening process of the principal component evaluation, which has effectively resolved the collinear problem of the target information. Gray fuzzy evaluation model, which combined objective evaluation with subjective one, has absorbed advantages of various methods and avoided one-sided and contingency of the traditional single-factor evaluation. Consequently, the interference from human factors has reduced and the valuated way has improved in scientificity and objectivity.