Research On Risk And Effectiveness Evaluation Technology On Crime Prevention System Based On Risk Entropy Model

Currently, with the increasing popularity of the application of crime prevention system from financial, museum, and important research institute to public place and residential area. security prevention cases sharp increase. In recent years, national security issues become serious in China. All parts of the country construct the safety city. Local governments at all levels and types of businesses invested heavily money in building a crime prevention system to monitor the social security situation comprehensively and accurately. Each day although various security facilities have played a positive role in the field of social security prevention. the effectiveness evaluation of crime prevention system focuses on the experience and management level. Due to the absence of theoretical methods and technical means for scientific quantitative evaluation, it is difficult to support a complete and efficient establishment of a comprehensive prevention and control system. So it is a major strategic task to research on risk assessment techniques and the establishment of objective evaluation of the risk in the area of national security prevention.To address the above problems, this thesis is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project "Research on Social Crime Prevention System Risk and Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.61170023). project of central colleges of special funds basic research and operating expenses)-Young Teacher Grant "The Effectiveness Evaluation on Security System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.3101014) and doctorial independent research projects of Wuhan University "Research on Network Risk Assessment Technology of Social Safety Protection System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.20102110101000117) to lauch the research on risk and effectiveness evaluation technology on crime prevention system based on risk entropy model.This dissertation contributes at four aspects:the method on security node protection effectiveness metric. the effectiveness evaluation and optimization on security network, risk prediction and effectiveness evaluation simulation platform on crime prevention system. Specifically. the research results of this paper are as follows:1. This dissertation learning form Shannon information theory put forwards the concept of risk entropy and establishes the node risk entropy model. The research results include the quantitative metric way on security node protection effectivness using risk entropy, the determing method on evaluation index weights and the degree of membership, and security node protection effectiveness measurement method under a variety of protection capability.2. This thesis abstracts the board security network which is connected from security node and transportation network into security network. We introduce the concept of path cost in effectiveness evaluation on security network. The research results include the path cost calculation method based on node risk entopy, measurement model on security network effectiveness, and the the relationship between security network effectiveness and risk value.3. Focusing the problem of layout and configuration security facilities unreasonably, this paper studies the protection capability optimization method on security network and establish the portfolio optimization model on security network protect capability. This model can guide resource allocation and scheduling in theory and minimize the average risk value of entire security network.The research results include the determing method on path weight of security network, the establishment of protection capability optimization model on crime prevention system, and fast solution algorithm on optimization model.4. Focusing on the problem of lacking simulation platform in the field of crime prevention system effectiveness evaluation, this paper firstly builds risk prediction and effectivenss evaluation simulation platform of crime prevention system using system simulation techniques combined with Monte Carlo method. This simulation platform not only forecasts the city risk real time but also draws the urban risk maps on the direction road. And then we can find the protection weakest path on the urban road through analysis of the prediction results. The research results include the interface analysis of risk prediction and effectivness evaluation simulation platform, Monte Carlo numerical simulation technology, consistency and normative approach on experimental data.In this dissertation, we study the risk and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system from basic theories, key technologies, methods and applications4aspects. The expected research results can breakthrough the technical bottleneck on risk assessment and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system. It discovers and solves the problems which may arise in the process of crime prevention system construction and application in time. At the same time, the research results can make crime prevention system monitoring, protection capability into full play and become strong technical support in the public safety system to guide the practice of crime prevention system. The above research result has an important scientific significance and application promotion prospects for the establishment of scientific forecasting, efficient prevention and effective emergency public safety system. This study method has an important reference significane for the other information system effectiveness evaluation. Finally, this paper summarized the research achievement and looked into the future research content.