The Allocation Of Carbon Emission In China Among Industires

In recent years， the climate change has already become the biggest globalenvironmental problem. The greenhouse gas emission has begun to affect the globalclimate model and bring a grim challenge to human social production, consumption andlife. In the long run, it is an inevitable choice in all countries to reduce carbon emissionsand avoid climate disaster. Because the emissions reduction has some effects on economicdevelopment, all countries in the world are reluctant to reduce emissions. Recently, thehistoric responsibility and the initial allocation of carbon emissions are exigent problems tobe solved in climate change. In China, we must pay more attention to how to achieve thereduction targets that the value added divided by carbon emission can decrease by40%-45%in2020. How to account for historical emissions will affect the historicalresponsibility of all countries to share and inevitably affect the right distribution of carbonemissions. Therefore it is necessary to research per capita historical cumulative carbonemissions and the final consumption of carbon emissions in main countries of the world,which will provide data support for negotiation on the climate change and win greatershare in initial right allocation of carbon emissions of our country.With clear objectives of carbon emission reduction, emission reduction target must beallocated among industries. There are intricate relationships between every industry. It isshown that limiting the high emission industries and developing low emission industriescan reduce emissions to some extent but could lead to the unbalance of the economicstructure. Moreover there are great differences in the energy structure and technical levelof each industry, so the unity target of carbon emission reduction is surely too complex toexecute. Therefore, according to the reduction targets and requirements of economicdevelopment, rational allocation of emission allowances along each industry will helprelieve stress of emission reduction, have clearly defined responsibilities and will adjustthe economic structure and energy structure properly, which can promote thetransformation towards low-carbon economy and secure economic developmentsustainably.Based on related study both at home and abroad, the paper accounts the carbonemission of the main countries of the world basis on various econometrics methods, doesquantitative analysis of the effect of economic、energy、technology and other factors onChina’s carbon intensity and calculates the capacity of energy saving and emissionreduction with industrial structural adjustment and energy structure adjustment. The paper gives the plan of the allocation of emission allowances along each industry and providessome policy proposals for low carbon industrial structural adjustment and low carbonenergy structural adjustment.Firstly, the paper calculates the carbon emission of the main countries of the worldbasis on input-output model, proposes the net transfer of carbon emission in foreign trade,allots producer responsibility and consumer responsibility according the scale effect,structure effect, technical effect and exchange effect, gives a method to calculate the finalconsumption of carbon emission through the emissions data of producer.Secondly, the paper combines the SDA and the LMDI, decomposes factors of thecarbon emissions intensity in two stages from1995to2000and from2000to2005. Theresult shows that in our “Nine Five” and “Ten Five” period the carbon intensity decreasesbecause the country improves energy efficiency, and during the whole period thecontribution rate has exceeded77%. The result shows that energy conversion technologyeffect and energy structure effect decreases the intensity of carbon emission but slightly.The result also shows that technology has contributed enormously to emission reduction in“Ten Five” period, and the effect of product structure on carbon intensity changes frompositive to negative but slightly.Thirdly, according to the consumption tends of urban and rural residents and theforecast of future income, combined with the optimal model and statistics, we forecast thestructure of consumer products in2020. According to the characteristics of governmentconsumption and the composition of export, we forecast the government consumption andthe structure of export products in2020. Meanwhile, an input-output dynamic model of ourcountry economy with different consumption rate and export rate is considered in thispaper. Balanced industry structure is found by solving this model. The results show that thepotential of structural emission reduction is significant. Emission reduction can achieveabove28%even a slight adjustment of industrial structure. If consumption accounts for thelarger proportion of the total demand, energy conservation and emission reduction willhave more potential.Fourthly, we forecast energy supply and supply structure with literature review, useTranscendental Logarithmic Production Function to estimate energy production functionacross industries and calculate output elasticity of coal, oil, natural gas, heat and electricpower in all industries. We build the optimal model of energy supply and minimum carbonemission under alternative constrains, provide all department adjustment plans of energystructure and calculate the potential of emission reduction under adjustment which shows the adjustment can reduce20.17%—24.87%energy consumption and reduce27.12—32.08%carbon emission.Finally, based on the industrial added value, total energy consumption and theproportion of various kinds of energy in the total energy consumption, the paper calculatesthe intensity of carbon emission in each industry, gives the aggregate amount of theemission reduction and the carbon intensity reduction, and proposes some correspondingmeasures to carry out carbon emissions objectives.