Study On Energy Carbon Emission Prediction In Yunnan Province

Today, with the sharp rise in global energy consumption, the phenomenon of environmental pollution, climate warming and energy shortage has become increasingly serious. Global climate change has become one of the most complex challenges facing humanity in twenty-first Century. One of the fundamental measures to solve the problem of climate change is to reduce the man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. China as the world’s largest economy in the world, in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions, China has ranked first in the world since 2009. Research on China’s emission reduction problem, is of great significance, not only for sustainable development realization, but also for the global warming restraint.From the current domestic and foreign scholars’ point of view, Yunnan Province is one of China’s carbon emission Province, whose potential of energy conservation and emission reduction is tremendous. There is little research on the carbon emission in Yunnan province. The current situation of carbon emission in Yunnan Province is studied, and the carbon emission in Yunnan Province is predicted through gray system GM (1.1) model. By doing so, the Yunnan carbon emissions problem is analyzed in detail scientifically and comprehensively. The results of the study show that:(1) from 2003 to 2014, energy consumption in Yunnan Province has been increased steadily. From the prospective of energy structure, coal consumption accounted for the largest share, electricity and petroleum ranked second, natural gas occupied the minimum proportion. Both the total carbon emission and carbon emission per capita in Yunnan province show a rapid growth momentum, and low carbon emission efficiency; (2) the carbon emission model for Yunnan Province, that is the GM (1.1) model, is established, which can is capable of the first level standard upon inspection, such that it can be used to predict more accurately. The results show that the carbon emission in Yunnan province will reach 2.85 billion tons by the year of 2020; (3) according to the grey relational analysis results, the association degree of coal in Yunnan Province is 0.9647, which is of the largest impact on carbon emission, and that of oil is 0.8113. When it comes to GDP, the correlation degree is 0.7292. With regard to the population quantity and the consumption of natural gas, the correlation degree is 0.6332 and 0.6226 respectively; (4) the emission reduction path is analyzed, and it turns out that the adjustment of industrial structure and the promotion of low-carbon development for traditional industries is a path to realize the reduction carbon emission in Yunnan Province. In addition, transform of the current production-consumption structure, implementation of carbon tax policy and carbon emissions trading mechanism is also a path of carbon emission reduction in Yunnan Province.