Study On Optimization Of Energy Consumption Structure Under The Constraint Of Carbon In China

Economic and social development needs energy consumption as support and motivation, and the fossil energy is the largest energy source at present, which brings increasing carbon emissions and a significant problem with the greenhouse effect, resulting in the deterioration of the global climate and threats to the earth ecosystem, affecting the development of society and economy. Therefore, the international community advocate low-carbon economy and green development, major powers have made energy-saving emission reduction commitments, seeking effective measures to reduce carbon emissions actively, weakening the greenhouse effect for sustainable development.China’s economy has experienced 30 years of rapid development, Which has attracted worldwide attention, but years ago the extensive growth has suffered from the international community more questions. Coal which based consumption structure led to an increasing number of high carbon emissions and has been the focus of international attention with more and more pressure in the future low carbon development.The extensive mode of economic development brought much pressure on ecological environment in the past, now the Chinese economy has been in the "new normal" stage, accelerating the industrial restructuring, slowing down the energy consumption demand and improving energy consumption structure in the process of low carbon transformation. It is of great significance to the stable economic development, the completion of emission reduction commitments and environmental governance.Optimization of energy consumption structure involves many variables constraints, not only includes the factors of economic system, but also includes the total energy consumption and carbon emissions restrictions. How to ensure the China economy in high speed and steady development, and to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy structure adjustment needs a comprehensive in-depth study and analysis. Obviously, the discussion in this paper has important theoretical value and practical significance to optimize the energy structure under the carbon constraint in China.Based on China’s economic growth, the status of energy consumption and carbon emissions analysis, using a variety of research methods and combining theory with practice, this paper studied the optimization of energy consumption structure deeply as follows:(1)This paper expounds the background of the research, analyzes the significance of the research and summarizes the domestic and abroad research on carbon emissions, economic growth and energy structure optimization and other related issues. On the basis of this, the research contents and methods of the thesis are defined. Then, this paper introduces the theory used in this paper, including the development of low carbon economy theory, the theory of sustainable development, energy-saving emission reduction theory and energy allocation theory.(2) After summarizing an overview of 36 years of economic growth in China, the status of energy consumption and carbon emissions, this paper analyzes its evolution trend and the differences between countries and provinces, combined with the index of the world’s major economic powers over the same periods.Then, this paper demonstrates the inner relation among China’s economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission. The influence from capital, labor and energy on the economic are analysed and the amounts corresponding to the economic output, energy consumption and carbon emission with and without carbon constraint are predicted in 2020. And then the various factors that affect the energy consumption structure are summarized, the relationship between them is analyzed, the internal and external influence mechanism is discussed, and the energy consumption structure and the corresponding carbon emissions in 2020 are forecasted.(3)This paper establishes the basic principles of China’s energy consumption structure optimization under carbon constrains and sets up three kinds of schemes, demonstrates the corresponding energy consumption structure optimization pattern and carbon emissions, under the premise of carbon constraints and energy constraints, in the overall national and provincial regions, respectively.(4)This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of optimization of energy consumption structure in China under the constraint of carbon in the following four aspects: the construction and improvement of the national energy management system, the control of industrial energy consumption, the encourage of technological innovation to improve energy efficiency and the alternative from clean energy to fossil fuels. Finally, the research results of this paper are summarized, the innovation points and deficiencies are extracted, and the prospects for further research are also proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Both economic growth and energy consumption are long-term Granger of carbon emission in one-way, and there is a long-term Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption in two-way.(2) The year 2000 as a cutoff point, ten years ago, compared with capital and labor, energy inputs and the national economy is less connected.After 2000, China’s economy has been in a new period of development, increasing demand for energy, so the energy contribution to economic output is more important than labor and capital, and to maintain the trend of rising year by year. Energy in the economic power is more and more important.(3) Carbon emissions constraints plays a positive role on the energy structure optimization, which directly affects the effect significantly, while the energy-saving is inhibition, which indirectly affecting the effect significantly.Technological progress and population will promote and optimize the energy structure, but the influence is very small.The economic growth slightly hinder the optimization of energy consumption structure.(4) It is easier to complete China’s carbon emission reduction commitments to the international community with the energy structure adjustment. On the basis of this, coupled with carbon constraints, it will make the future of China’s carbon emissions lower.(5) Regardless of the overall national or provincial area, the optimization of energy structure are giving priority to energy-saving emission reduction strategies in a clear energy constraints, comparing energy saving, emission reduction strategies. Energy consumption structure tend to multiple low carbonization to complete China 2020 carbon intensity reduction target after optimization at the national level and provincial level.