Safety Evaluation And Early Warning Of Offshore Platform Based On Data Analysis

Offshore platforms have drawn great attention from each country. They are complex in structure costly to build. An offshore platform is the most important equipment utilized within offshore oil exploitation. Due to complex marine environments, offshore platforms faces kinds of risks, for instance, working load, environmental load, and fire risk. Offshore platforms accidents have usually taken place, these accidents resulted in heavy casualties, loss of property and damage to the marine ecological environment. Prewarning system of offshore platform proposed in the paper can provide some referenced value for the study on the safety management of offshore platform.At present, many offshore platform enterprises have to build up the safety monitoring system, but these safety monitoring systems only for the structure safety of offshore platform, but not to the system level of offshore platform. As the studies on safety prewarning of offshore platform based on system level are in a preliminary situation. Many maritime states pay more and more attention to offshore platform safety management, but the offshore platform safety prewarning research of colleges and other research institutions is still in the initial stage.In this paper, based on national security law and safety technical standard, under the guidance of safety prewarning theory, and on the basis of the reality situation of offshore platform, and use safety monitoring technology and safety evaluation technology, analyze the risk in the operation process according to the characteristics of offshore platform enterprise, determine safety prewarning indicators of offshore platform, build safety prewarning model. This study realizes the safety activities of monitoring, diagnosis, control and correction to reduce and prevent risk to provide technical support and theoretical basis.The content of this paper includes five aspects:(1)safety prewarning theoretical research; (2)the operation process of offshore platform’ hazard analysis; (3)offshore platform safety prewarning index system was established; (4)the safety and life prewarning model of offshore platform was established; (5)a universal platform about safety prewarning of offshore platform was constructed. By collecting and researching a large amount of literature at home and abroad, and through empirical study and theoretical research, the following results and conclusions were obtained.1. Theoretical research. Starting with "preventive treatment of disease", the paper analyses non excellent theory, systematics, safe rheology and sudden change theory, TARPs theory, and intrinsically safe theory one by one. We can clearly understand the development and direction of safety prewarning research through comb these theories.Next, this paper is based on the theory of safety prewarning, describes method system, operational mode, function, basic program, and guide methods of offshore platform safety prewarning management. We understand the concept of safety prewarning of offshore platform from the point of view of methodology.2. Risk analysis. Risk analysis is the foundation of safety prewarning study. By understanding accident type and characteristics of offshore platform, we can be clear of the features of early warning objects. This paper, based on Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method, describes the hazard of offshore work platform. The effect factors of offshore platform safety are investigated. This article constructs a structure model based on the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) method in order to have very clear impression on the influencing factor system of offshore platform safety. According to the characteristics of the six kinds of accidents, STELLA software was adopted to carry out simulation for the model.3. Safety prewarning index system established. Safety prewarning index is the object of safety monitoring and safety prewarning, can reflect the safety situation of the whole production process. This paper set up the scientific and overall prewarning index system of offshore platform.4. The safety prewarning level model construction. Now, our research found that all of the existing safety prewarning models pay more attention to the whole of system, and lack of single index and subsystem prewarning, so we set up the safety prewarning level model of offshore platform, and setting the prewarning level and prewarning rules. According to the single index, we proposed the prewarning model based on the time series analysis; According to the subsystem and system, we proposed the prewarning model based on wavelet genetic neural network.There are a lot of ageing platforms that are needed to extend their lifetime for continual service, this paper proposed a lifetie early warning and repair decision-making model based on DHGF method.5. Safety prewarning platform building. This paper established a safety prewarning platform, which integrates safety management, real-time monitoring, risk prewarning and emergency rescue.The innovation points of this article have some aspects as follows:1. On the basis of the accident cause theory, this paper made a further careful study based on Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method. Safety influence factors of offshore platform can be divided into five categories, they are personnel, equipment, environment, management and technology. We established the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) model of safety system of offshore platform, studied the cause of the mechanism of safety incidents of offshore platform.2. This paper set up the scientific and overall prewarning index system of offshore platform. Especially in the process of setting up equipment safety prewarning index, we distinguish the universality equipment index, subsystem equipment index and structure factors index in order to improve the pertinence of index.In the process of setting up personnel safety prewarning index, we distinguish the universality personnel index, technical personnel index and management personnel index.3. We build hierarchical safety prewarning model of offshore platform. For single index prewarning, we applied time series analysis method; For subsystem and sytem prewarning, we applied a new model based on BP neural network, genetic algorithm and wavelet transform; For life prewarning and repair decision-making, we applied DHGF method.4. This paper came up with general design for safety prewarning platform, it included safety management, real-time online monitoring, risk prewarning and emergency rescue.