The Model And Its Application For Analyzing The Impacts Of Regional Development On The Ecosystem

With population growth and economic development, global natural ecosystems are under enormous pressure from human activities, and a variety of ecological issues become increasingly prominent. The interactions between human activities and ecosystems are complicated. As a result, the ecosystem should be considered as a whole while analyzing the impacts of regional development on the ecosystem. However, the existing ecological analysis methods and management practices mainly focus on specific materials or receptors, ignoring the integrity of the ecosystem.With the guide of basic knowledge and principles of systematic ecology, this thesis selects ecosystem services as the endpoints of ecological impact assessment, and establishes the conceptual model of ecological impact assessment at the regional scale. This model not only considers the complicated interactions between human activities and regional ecosystem, but also describes the relationships between ecosystem structures, processes and services.Based on the conceptual model and Bayesian belief network method, the thesis develops the quantitative model for analyzing the impacts of regional development on the ecosystem. There are mainly four steps to transform the conceptual model to the Bayesian belief network, including model structure building, parameter estimation, model checking and model application. The quantitative model can quantitatively assess the impacts of human activities on the regional ecosystem, especially on the ecosystem services, and identify the key influencing factors, which can effectively support the ecosystem-based management.The quantitative model makes the conceptual model feasible and practicable.Taking the city of Kunming as a case, the thesis evaluates its eight ecosystem services between 2000-2010 and identifies the important influencing factors. The thesis also predicts these ecosystem services in 2020 applying the quantitative model under a regional development scenario. The results indicate that habitat provision service, water supply service and food supply service are showing a trend of a rapid deterioration, and the water purification service is likely to worsen in the future, which should be paid more attention to. The key factor for the level of terrestrial ecosystem services is afforestation. The dam, paper-making industry, manufacture and processing of foods and beverages, as well as chemical industry have the most significant impacts on the level of aquatic ecosystem services. The case study proves the feasibility of the model.