A Scenario-Based Model Applied For Integrated Water Resources Management In Binhai New Area

Water resources are vital for the lifeline of the regional socio-economic andecological sustainable development. Integrated water resources management (IWRM)is a new method of the theoretical framework of the sustainable development ofwater resources utilization and an important guarantee for coordinated developmentbetween the social, economic and ecological environment, as well as an effectiveway to solve the water crisis. The rapid growth of population, industrial productionactivities and urbanization cause a promptly rise of water demand in Binhai NewArea (BHNA) where is severely short of water resources. It is a new challenge forintegrated water resources management because of the contradiction between supplyand demand of water resources, water environment deterioration, water security andother issues which has constrained sustainable development of region, Waterresources modeling technique is a key part of IWRM used for prediction anddecision-making of water resources. BHNA within the jurisdiction of Tianjinmunicipality is the third major economic development zone besides the ShenzhenSpecial Economic Zone(SSEZ) and Pudong New Area (PDNA). The demand ofwater resources is rising rapidly in this region while the supply is not sufficient,highly dependent on external water resources. With increasing the pressures ofurbanization and industrialization, we must take regional development, industrialrestructuring, strategic goals and other aspects into account to optimize on waterresources planning and management.According to urbanization regular patterns, with the use of mathematicalmethods, remote sensing (ERDAS soft) and the industrial structure theory(Petty-Clark rules), we concluded that BHNA was at the complex stage ofsocio-economic development, which is located in the later development phase ofurbanization and industrialization. It was a solid foundation for the selection andestimation of water resources management model tools.The water quality of Yuqiao reservoir, which is the major impounded reservoirof Luan River project and primary water resource for Tianjin, will directly affect the water security of BHNA. The vital key for the development of a reservoirmanagement strategy is to model watershed nutrient loading and to linkwatershed-model used to estimate the water quality and health of the reservoir. Weselect the integrated GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model andBATHTUB water quality model to simulate actual water quality conditions ofYuqiao Reservoir, determined pollution sources of different types. The resultsdemonstrated that controlling livestock and domestic pollution could effectivelyreduce the total phosphorus concentration in reservoir in order to guarantee waterquality safety. As it was a resercior under the pollution of phosphorus, differentmanagement scenarios concerning phosphorus control had been evaluated for rawwater protecting.Based on the drainage network and topological relations of vector data of theBHNA Urban Watershed extracted by Arc Hydro tools, the BNHA-WEAP (WaterEvaluation and Planning) was constructed. WEAP is a practical tool for evaluatingalternative water planning and management strategies. With the population growth,industrialization and economic development goals coming true, we developeddifferent scenarios to predict water resources in the future. This study focused on thewater allocation under three different scenarios of socio-economic developmentincluded urbanism sprawl, industrial adjustment and policy steering until2020inBHNA.Comprehensive analysis depicted that GWLF-BATHTUB model linkage whichis used to assess pollution constitutes provides technical supports for water security.WEAP places the urbanism, industrialism and water resources problems in acomprehensive framework and forecasts water supply and demand trends in thefuture. This will provide scientific support and reference for regional socio-economicdevelopment and sustainable water resources management. This document integratedWEAP and GWLF-BATHTUB model to initially build BHNA-IWRM frameworkwhich will help government to make decision in the future water resourcesmanagement in BHNA.