| As national energy and chemical base, Ordos which mainly depending on coal mining, has experienced highly development, but now suffers from the influences of coal price fluctuation and energy structure adjustment, the economic development deserves urgent transition. Moreover, what impeding the social economic sustainability in Ordos are water resource shortage, inefficient water utilization, serious environmental pollution and extensive energy consumption. This study aims at realizing the goal of water management and sustainable development under multiple constraints which containing water resource supply, energy conservation and emission reduction. The research content and mainly innovation are as follows:First, based on the theories of material, energy, value balance and input-output, this study constructs conceptual model and dynamic empirical optimal model, which consisting objective function, social economic module, water supply-demand module, water pollution module, air pollution module and energy consumption module; and constitutes dynamic interaction among them. Then this study designs the water resource management solution containing optimal water allocation and technology introduction, also with the policies including adjustment of industrial structure, distribution of fiscal subsidy, enery-saving and emission-reduction, which are introduced into the model as endogenous variables. The target of this model is to approach the optimal economic growth with the constraints of supply-demand balance of water resource and environmental carrying capacity. This study uses the data of 2012 for the base period and utilizes LINGO to simulate it at annual level range from 2013 to 2025.Next, by scenario simulation of technology and policy plan, the result of the optimal scenario shows that till 2025, there will increase 82.4 million tons of sewage treatment, the reuse rate of reclaimed water will reach 79.21%, sewage water treatment and reclaimed water reuse in every districts are going to achieve the planning goals; GRP will reach 785.1 billion RMB with an average annual growth rate of 6.4%, fixing the rapidly growth rate of 15% in "five-year plan", and the industrial structure will be 1:48:51; The emissions of COD, SO2, NOx will reduce with an average reduced rate of 3.3%,2.5% and 4.9% respectively, while the energy consumption will drop with the rate of 3.3% annually; The tradeoff between water resource utilization, regional economic growth and environmental improvement is almost achieved.Again, in order to achieve these goals, Ordos should totally provide 3.791 billion RMB from 2013 to 2025, among which, there are 2.032 billion should be used for new construction of 53 items of sewage disposal plants with technology called Extractive Membrane Bioreactor; and there are 1.759 billion should be applied to optimizing water allocation and industrial structure, by curtailing the Primary industry; Coal mining and dressing industry; Oil, gas, metal and nonmetal mining and dressing industry; Metal, nonmetal processing and manufacturing industries; Food, textile, paper and other manufacturing industries; Electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry; while encouraging Petroleum processing and chemical industry, Equipment manufacturing industry, Construction industry and Tertiary industry. Besides, in terms of energy-conservation and emissions-reduction, the government should pay more attention to the breakthrough in advanced fields and overall coordination excepting the total quantity control and standard limitation.This study can provide references for technology selection and fiscal investment of efficient water resource utilization in Ordos, can also offer policy support for how to realizing sustainable development between resource, environment and economic growth. Since the model is exoteric, this study can provide reference on modeling when solving sustainable issues for other regions. |
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