Research On Traveler's Travel Mode Choice Behaviors Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

In today's China,where economy,society and science and technology are developing rapidly,travelers' travel modes have shown a trend of diversification.In real life,due to the uncertainty of actual traffic conditions,the behaviors of travelers choosing different travel methods will also vary.Therefore,in the situation of uncertain travel,the choice of travel modes of travelers has become one of the hot topics of research.The thesis first introduces the topic selection background and research significance,through collating and analyzing domestic and foreign literature on traffic travel decision-making behavior,the effect of ride-hailing on travel modes,and traffic travel decision-making behavior based on cumulative prospect theory,and then based on ride-hailing,Traveler travel mode classification,behavioral decision theory development process,and relevant conclusions of cumulative prospect theory,provide theoretical and practical verification for the cumulative prospect theory of subsequent traveler travel mode choice behavior and the establishment of a traveler travel mode choice behavior model based on cumulative prospect theory Actual support.In the section of verifying that traveler's travel mode selection behaviors conform to the cumulative prospect theory,1014 copies of the personal characteristics data and travel mode selection behaviors in different scenarios of the travelers were collected through questionnaire surveys.The conclusion is that in the uncertain travel situation,the choice of the traveler's travel mode depends on situation factors such as waiting time,travel purpose,and travel time,and these behavior characteristics are in line with the three basic perspectives of the prospect theory.In the part of establishing the travel mode selection behavior model based on the cumulative prospect theory,through the establishment of multiple Logit models,using MATLAB simulation software,by compiling the genetic algorithm,the risk preference coefficient of the travel model selection behavior model based on the cumulative prospect theory,Loss aversion coefficient and risk-return attitude coefficient are used to estimate the parameters,and the model is also robustly analyzed.The research results show that the travel decision-making behavior of the traveler is in accordance with the reference point dependence,and the parameter estimates are affected by the type of traveler and the travel situation,and different traveler types and travel situations have different effectson the parameter estimates.Finally,through theoretical research and numerical results,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the traffic management department to improve the utilization rate of traffic resources and alleviate the problem of road traffic congestion.In order to describe and predict the traveler's choice of travel mode,this study is based on the theory of cumulative prospect theory.However,in the study of the travel mode selection behavior using prospect theory or cumulative prospect theory,it is rare to use the car-hailing car as a travel mode The selection plan is included in the traveler's consideration,and at the same time,in the classification of travel methods studied by predecessors,there is no distinction between online car rental and taxi.In this paper,considering the competitive relationship between ride-hailing and taxis and different traffic characteristics,adding ride-hailing as an optional travel method to the traveler's choice can better describe and predict the traveler's travel mode choice behavior.It provides a more practical reference and reference for the traffic management department to reasonably plan competitive travel modes and alleviate road congestion.