The Effect Analysis On Public Bicycle Traffic System

Public bicycle has the advantages of health, convenience and energy saving, it also has the superiority of convenient to access, special maintenance and low theft compared with the conventional bicycle. So it is the best choice for short-distance travel, leisure travel and the connection tool of bus. Nowadays, the health is valued and the slow traffic is advocated, so the rapid development of public bicycle meets the needs of people’s travel.First of all, the disaggregate logit model based on individual utility maximization and the historical data based regression model are used to forecast the public bicycle traffic demand, so the research is established for the public bicycle traffic effect analysis. Secondly, the supply optimization model is established to minimize the amount of bicycle and determine the scheduling demand, optimize the rental points of the bicycle supply. Finally, the social welfare function model is established based on the consumer surplus and producer surplus, and the comprehensive benefit model is built based on the traffic benefit, economic benefit and social benefit to analyze the system operation effect. And then maximize the social welfare and comprehensive benefit as target to determine the best distance between rental points and the best system scale.The research results provide a quantitative theory for planning and they are the foundation of efficient operation and sustainable development of public bicycle system. The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1) The demand for public bicycle traffic is predicted. Based on the public bicycle system development and data collection demand, for the cities without public bicycle, the intention survey method is used. The survey data included the age, gender, income of traveler and travel distance and time. The disaggregate logit model is used to forecast the proportion of public bicycle traffic. For the cities of mature and rapid development with public bicycle, making Hangzhou as the example, the data of the number of public bicycle, rental point and the capacity of rental point are obtained through field survey. The regression forecasting method is used to forecast public bicycle traffic demand of targets year. The forecast results lay the foundation for the analysis of social welfare and comprehensive benefit.(2) The supply of public bicycle traffic is analyzed. By the comparative analysis of borrowing and returning characteristics from different types of rental points, the conclusion can be drawn that the difference value between borrowing and returning number is larger at the same rental point in peak period. The situation that there are not bicycles can be borrowed and not locks can be returned occasionally appeares. During the morning peak period, the borrowing demand of settlements, bus stations and sure scenic spots, the returning demands of university points are larger. Then during the evening peak period, the borrowing demands of university points and public building points are larger, the returning number increased significantly. It is just opposite between morning and evening peak period. Overall, the borrowing demand at morning and returning demand at evening peak period is larger. Then the model of demand for rental point supply and initial loading number of dispatched car are established with the aim to carry a minimum number of bicycle. The supply analysis is optimized by the actual data of rental points in Hushu south Road and Huancheng north Road. The loading bicycle number of dispatched car and adjustment number of each rental points are gained. The bicycle demand for traveler is satisfied as much as possible under the limited resources.(3) The social welfare of public bicycle is analyzed. The social welfare is composed with consumer and producer surplus witch is a direct relation with system scale. The consumer surplus is represented by the time value of saving travel time. The travel time is analyzed, including the time from origin or destination to rental point, borrowing and returning time and the running time in the road. The producer surplus is represented by the difference value of rent income and maintenance cost. The rent income is analyzed, including overtime rent and advertisement rent, and the maintenance cost mainly is the number of public bicycle. The social welfare model is established to determine the average spacing of the rental points, the number of public bicycles and the number of rental points under social welfare maximization based on the research of consumer and producer surplus.(4) The comprehensive benefit of public bicycle traffic is analyzed. The comprehensive benefit is more comprehensive and more in-depth than social welfare, which reflects the effect of the whole society on the operation of the system.The comprehensive benefit of public bicycle is composed with traffic benefit, economic benefit and social benefit. The models of them are established respectively. The counted traffic benefit is greater than economic benefit and social benefit by comparative analysis. The comprehensive benefit with different spacing of the aim years are compared basing on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on analytic hierarchy process(AHP), so we can determine the average spacing of the rental points, the number of public bicycles and the number of rental points under social welfare maximization.