| As the "eastward" trend of world economic and political gravity gets more and more obvious, Asia is becoming the "powerhouse" of international relations gradually. East Asia in the field of international political research is a very complicated political game arena, which covers China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, ASEAN, America and the "Pan East Asian" states, such as India located in South Asia, Australia and New Zealand located in the region of South Pacific Ocean. East Asian politics is complicated and troublesome, especially in security arena. Fruitful academic achievements made by scholars and research institutions of different states are emerging in the research of security. Security study on East Asia is the prominent task of the international security research after the end of Cold War.Power Transition Theory (PTT) itself is not the mainstream theory in international relations, but the theoretical proposition of this theory influences broadly and profoundly. Power Transition Theory develops on the basis of Realpolitik. The kernel of the theoretical architecture attaches importance to the analysis of power. PTT maintains that "power transition" is one of the crucial inducements causing instability in international relations. This dissertation attempts to analyze and investigate scientifically the adjustment of East Asia security architecture in order to unfold new visual angle of East Asia security research by use of reasonable theoretical assumptions and framework of PTT combined with East Asia security transformation. The outstanding "problematic transition" in East Asia region is the rise of China and the transformation or development of Chinese diplomatic strategy. The rise of China brings forth momentous changes on the power comparison of great powers, which does not cause the occurrence of "power transition" in international system but only brings forth limited "power shift" with the new adjustment of power comparison, which is called the "non-typical transition mode" by John Ikenberry. This dissertation selects the basic essentials and factors to comparatively analyze the national power of China, America, Japan, Russia and India from1991to2011by using complex methods on the base of PTT,in order to make clear East Asian countries’power transformation in the post Cold War period. With comparatively analysis the conclusion is that the superior complex strength of America is certainly much unattainable to China. Although the absolute proportion of America descends a little, the advantage of America over other States is overwhelming and there is no one State can challenge it. In conclusion, the power transition does not exist between China and America, and the power comparison only presents some kind of subtle adjustment, that is to say, China can not make parallel to the American advantage in short term. China is in the pre-phase of chasing America at the present time.Thus, there is difference in theoretical connotation between "power transition" and "power shift", and the current security trend of East Asia is also different to the situation discussed in PTT."Power shift" is the necessary process resulting in "power transition", and "power transition" is the final orientation of "power shift". So, all the periods before the power transition can be identified in the scope of power shift. The relationship between power transition and power shift is in similarity with the logic relation of quantitative change and qualitative change. The power transition is toward the inevitable tendency when power shift exceeds power parity phase. The reason that power shift produces the change of security relation before power transition lies in that power is still the necessary method realizing security in international relations. Power shift will arouse the sense of insecurity, the occurrence of new security issues, the depth of security tensions, and the adjustment of security relation. Thereby the regional security situation will change inevitably. PTT does not mention the relation between power and security directly, but it links power transition with international (regional) order directly. PTT advocates that relative increase or decrease of power induces the new fluxion and collocation of power elements, and then shakes international (regional) order to transform according to real power politics. The author of this dissertation believes that PTT cannot explain the new security situation of East Asia as the rise of China. It is not the decisive power transition but the power shift itself initiated by the rise of great power induces the new transformation of interstate interaction. Process of this transformation and adjustment will not only determine whether the historical course of power transition will emerge or not, but also determine what kind of international (regional) order will be brought forth by the power transition."Power shift" induced by the rise of China has certainly become the key factor to re-organize the new East Asian security order. Security situation of East Asia has been changed while entering into21st Century. The national strategy of great power has readjusted during the period of "power shift". Obama administration’s strategy of "U.S. Returning to the Asia-Pacific" and "U.S. Rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific" indicates that U.S. starts to adjust global security situation, redefines the future strategy pivot of U.S. military forces, and insures that Asia-Pacific region is the global center of U.S strategy in21st Century. This strategic adjustment includes the following aspects:Firstly, U.S. emphasizes that the global center of U.S strategy transforms to Asia-Pacific region, which means that not only the deployment of military forces but also the construction of alliances and defense system will tend to Asia-Pacific region decisively. Secondly, U.S. enhances the preparation of direct military conflict with China, and substitutes the military strategy of Asia-Pacific region of "direct military antagonism" with China for the former strategy of "watch and deter China". Thirdly, U.S. stresses the so called "rise of China" is the maximal uncertainty of security and economy in Asia-Pacific region, strives for the U.S. leadership comprehensively, and makes the U.S."leading roll" of Asia-Pacific region stable and strengthened as the "political guarantee" in realizing cooperation between U.S. and other states in this region. Fourthly, U.S. strives for benefits from Asia-Pacific region economy, and revitalizes U.S. export strategy by use of trade in Asia-Pacific region as point of penetration, and dominates the orientation of future cooperative economy in Asia-Pacific region by multiple means of diplomacy, economy, and strategy. Obama administration’s strategy of "U.S. rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific" does not predicate that U.S. will rival comprehensively with China, because neither U.S. nor China is willing to see the "New Cold War".The East Asia security relation has changed and adjusted serially in the perspective of power shift:Firstly, the military alliance system is continuously enhanced, and various forms of updated trilateral defense dialogue and cooperation become the obvious trend transforming from U.S.-centered bilateral military alliance. Secondly, U.S. and its main alliances are absorbing India---another rising power of Asia Pacific region, to avoid the building of rival strategic groupings with the rise of China by winning over emerging economies, such as India and Russia. U.S. strives for dominating the historical process of rebuilding balance of power in Asia-Pacific region through substantially consolidating the strategic partnership with India during the period of China’s rise. The strategic relation with India is a crucial chain of "U.S. rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific", and U.S. regards India as the key point of economic integration and political stability in the future South Asia and Central Asia. Finally, Southeast Asia is viewed as the access to new strategic resources of U.S. as the important region of restricting China’s geo-strategic influence. To achieve this goal, U.S. will reinforce its presence in Southeast Asia and develop the "balancing China" strategy in the issue of South China Sea with the Southeast Asia states using multilateral institutions.The process of power shift is also the process of reorganizing regional security order. In the interest of maintaining the security stability, peace, and prosperity of East Asia, and attaching importance to the complex effect of power shift brought forth by the rise of great power, we should have profound cognition and understanding as the followings:Firstly, every state should manage the increasing security dilemma in East Asia well through enhancing dialogue and cooperation, especially the dialogue and cooperation between defense policy departments. Secondly, the adjustment of strategy and policy among states should be treated in deliberative position and attitude, and nationalism emotions and the interference and influence of domestic competing political interests should be reduced. The crux of avoiding security mistrust transforming to military conflicts is to preserve openness and engagement in interstate relations. Finally, besides the traditional military alliances, states in this region should make efforts collectively to build more containable regional security institutions, introduce and enlarge regional security multilateralism constantly, and avoid dangerous "balancing effect" induced by mere institution of balancing power. China’s most neighboring states worry about the expansionary policies China will adopt after its rise, and turn to enhance the military and defense cooperation with U.S. or increase the military expenditure and defense spending to contain and watch out China, and rectify their security policy. The future of China’s rise should build one new and more containable East Asian security order in the development between balance of power and institutional cooperation.New East Asian security order is essentially determined by the collective efforts of all East Asia states, not just by the great power relations. The Six Party Talk is an important manifestation form of Northeast Asian multilateral security institutions, and also is an effective attempt of East Asian security institution. The new security order of East Asia should build not only on the basis of balance of power, but also in the containable regional security cooperative architecture, which regulates and disposes more security issues. Profound recognition should be possessed to insure the correct strategic orientation and positive effectiveness in the reorganization of regional security order with power shift. The future East Asia security should be rebuilt in the dual process of balance of power and institutional cooperation. |
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