Sino-Pakistan Entente Cordiale Versus Indo-US Strategic Alliance:a Case Study Of Balance Of Power In South Asia (1998-2012)

Chapter one provides a theoretical framework to the study which further helps in clarifying goals and objectives of this study. To understand South Asia’s dynamics of balance of power,"Realist Paradigm" tries to establish that despite the advent of globalization and other contending liberal theories, fundamental nature of international politics has not changed drastically. Anarchic structure of world politics engenders a system of self-help where states formulate policies to defend against possible threats. If states do not acquire sufficient power they are more prone to become subservient to other powerful states. In such an anarchic structure balance of power is more effective than other theories and this logic truly elaborates the strategic environment of South Asia. Power can only be countered by power most effectively. States have been practicing balance of power since yore. Efficacy of this conception can be traced back to cold war scenario when U.S and USSR were on the brink of nuclear catastrophe but deescalated because of the fear of "Mutually Assured Destruction".Similarly maintenance of balance of power in South Asia ensures relative peace and stability. Disturbance in balance of power may push India and Pakistan to the "Brinksmanship" which would definitely engulf neighboring nuclear states as well.Chapter two narrates that since independence of the Subcontinent, India and Pakistan waged several wars and the main reason of escalation was asymmetric power relationship between them. To reach power parity, Pakistan joined U.S sponsored security pacts like SEATO and CENTO whereas India did not join any bloc and got huge military and economic aid from both the superpowers. Sino-Indian border conflict (1962) made India a valuable asset for America to wield policy of containment against China and check China’s rising influence in South Asia. India’s "two-front antagonism" made India a common threat for Pakistan and China. Pakistan-India wars of1965and1971were direct outcome of Indian military superiority over Pakistan. The bad situation turned worse when India tested nuclear weapons in1974with technical and material assistance from USSR and USA, which had clearly tipped balance in India’s favor. India’s ’bullying approach’ continued over Kashmir issue and once again in1998India threatened Pakistan by reincarnating nuclear tests. Pakistan’s nuclear ambiguity came to end when Pakistan retaliated in a tit-for-tat fashion by conducting5nuclear tests within the15days of Indian test. Pakistan got remarkable support from China to reach balance against India. This way Pakistan endeavored to accomplish strategic parity with India.Chapter three discourses that because of the ’nuclearization of sub-continent,’ South Asian security experienced a paradigm shift. Pakistan’s nukes ultimately managed to counter-balance India’s nuclear monopoly in South Asia. Pessimistic anti-bomb lobby in Washington expressed deep concerns about the eruption of a nuclear war. But balance of power worked so smartly that both the countries initiated peace process with reincarnated zeal and zest to end half-century long rivalry including perennial dispute of Kashmir. China appreciated peace efforts and vowed to support Pakistan in its detente with India. India and Pakistan used all-encompassing diplomatic skills to enhance military and non-military CBMs. Internal and external Anti-peace elements maneuvered to sabotage peace by triggering ’Kargil war’ and once again pushed both the countries to the’Brinkmanship’. Fear of ’Mutually Assured Destruction’ was so intensive that crisis deescalated and both states constituted a’fact finding commission’ to figure out causes of war. Peace in South Asia inflicted a heavy blow on the interest of those powers who sell weapons, worth billions of dollars annually to India and Pakistan and cannot tolerate China’s peaceful rise. Such acts of sabotage temporarily derailed peace process but could not trigger any full-scale war. An appropriate analogy can be drawn between South Asian security environs and’Cold War’ strategic balance when there erupted several undesirable incidents but cold war could not turn into hot war because of Quasi-balance between nuclear armed rivals.Chapter four holds forth that States carve out balancing strategy in international relations because of two simple reasons. Either they want to prevent the rise of a hegemon or hamper the rise of an inimical state to a predominant position where it could pose any real threat to other’s security and survival. States follow soft balancing and hard balancing to accomplish this very objective. In case of complex balancing of South Asia where India and Pakistan are engaged in soft as well as hard balancing to further their respective national interest. India enjoys superiority over Pakistan in conventional arms build-up. America’s Strategic partnership with India made Indian military capability insurmountable. Huge sales of modern and sophisticated American weapons to India could disturb regional balance of power. Pakistan’s staunch and reliable supporter China helps Pakistan to follow the path of balancing strategy against Indo-US strategic partnership. Maintenance of balance of power is sine qua non for regional peace and stability.Chapter five dissertates about the role of United States in tipping balance of power in India’s favor. Hedley Bull enunciates that great powers may use their predominance in the maintenance of international order. But in practice, major powers adopt such policies which even promote disorder. Sometimes great powers seek to upset the general balance rather than to preserve it. Peace in South Asia is directly linked with maintenance of balance of power between India and Pakistan. But United States by exploiting its predominance in international system offered India a nuclear deal which is tantamount to upset regional balance of power and the irony is that India-US did not enjoy unprecedented honeymoon period in their mutual relations historically. Obviously, there are some clandestine objectives behind such a hefty nuclear deal. Pakistan and China are the immediate affectees of Indo-US civil nuclear deal. Indo-US nuclear deal would reward India with an abrupt upthrust strategically. United States aspires to enable India as a counter-balancer of China. Though Indo-US nuclear deal was in direct contravention of NPT and CTBT because of India’s non-signatory status to both the international regimes but nuclear club ratified it without any expostulation. This Indo-US nuclear deal would certainly strengthen Indian nuclear capability compared to Pakistan which is definitely likely to upset regional balance of Power. China as a biggest stake holder in South Asian politics stepped up and clinched the similar strategic deal with Pakistan to reconstruct regional balance.Chapter six babbles out China’s crucial role in the maintenance of peace and stability in South Asia by preserving balance of power between nuclear armed rivals. Indo-US civil nuclear deal certainly provided India with nuclear supremacy in terms of nuclear technology and de jure recognition to Indian nuclear program, though India is not a party to NPT (Nuclear nonproliferation Treaty). Pakistan has been expecting similar deal from United States as being "Non-NATO ally" and a frontline state in American led war against terrorism. Pakistan’s hopes to receive similar treatment were shattered when U.S categorically rejected any civil nuclear deal for Pakistan. Pakistani strategists are deeply concerned that Indo-US civil nuclear deal would feed supernumerary Uranium to Indian nuclear weapon program and debilitate the existing deterrence. Ultimately, when America refused to hear Pakistan’s persistent demands of equal treatment with India then Pakistan rested on its "all-weather-friend" China for catching up with Indian nuclear superiority. China being the rising power and an immediate neighbor has got vested interests in South Asia. China earnestly desires preservation of peace and stability in the region which is conducive for China’s peaceful rise and beneficial for regional peace and prosperity. Balance of power between India and Pakistan could certainly ensure relative peace in the region as was witnessed after1998nuclear showcase.