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The Effect Of Rural Labor Migration On Regional Economic Growth

Posted on:2014-04-10Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1227330425489459Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has grown rapidly, but regional economic development is unbalance. Meanwhile, the number of rural labor migration is increasing. Is there more potential of labor transfer? How does it affect the development of regional economy in China? Where is the potential? Will agricultural labor transfer still contribute to economic growth? To answer these questions, we must first investigate the present situations of China’s rural labor migration and dynamic evolution. At the same time, we must solve the following problems:How are the impact of rural labor inter-sector migration on regional economic growth? How are the impact of rural labor inter-regional migration on spatial distribution and regional economic growth?This dissertation is divided into six chapters, the main contents and the conclusions are as follows:Chapter1:the introduction. This chapter introduces the research background, domestic and international literatures, research purpose and significance. Then we point out research ideas, research contents, methods and the innovations.Chapter2:the related theories on rural labor migration and regional economic growth. Firstly, we review the related theories on rural labor inter-sector migration and regional economic growth. The patterns of growth of dual economy are a reallocation of labor from low productivity agriculture to high productivity non-agricultural sector [see Lewis (1954), Rains and Fei (1961), Jorgenson (1961), Mas-Colell and Razin (1973)]. But they neglected the impact of agricultural labor transfer on regional economic growth and convergence. Although Mas-Colell and Razin (1973) introduced industrial capital into the agricultural sector, they didn’t further explain agricultural development mechanism of labor transfer. Although the new classical economic growth theory holds regional economic convergence, the theory assumes that economy was only a single modern sector and marginal productivity of labor is the same in each sector. The assumptions aren’t consistent with the actual situations of the developing countries. Therefore, we will broaden Mas-Colell and Razin model to study the mechanism of rural labor inter-sector migration on regional economic growth and convergence in chapter4. Secondly, we review the related theories of rural labor inter-regional migration and regional economic growth. The new classical economic growth theory holds that labor and capital move in the opposite direction, thus directly lead to regional economic convergence. The core-periphery model persist that due to labor and capital are the same direction of mobility, regional disparity experiences a process, of which enlarges at first and then narrows, but finally become convergence. Which is fit for the actual situations of China? We will empirically test the effect of rural labor inter-regional migration on regional economic growth in chapter5.Chapter3:the present situations of China’s rural labor transfer and dynamic evolution. We analyze the situations of rural labor transfer and dynamic evolution since the reform and opening up, especially since1990’s. The main conclusions are as follows.(1) The number of migrant workers has been increasing.(2)Migrants worked in hometown’s non-agricultural sector in1980’s, but the number of Migrants has been increasing outside hometown since1990’s.(3) Migrant workers mainly concentrated in the eastern region, but in recent years, have begun to move from the eastern region to the central and western regions.(4) Migrant workers have been concentrating in cities at and above prefecture-level since2000.(5)They mainly work for industry, service and construction industry. The number of workers in manufacturing sector is the biggest. Migrant workers are mainly engaged in manufacturing industry in the eastern region; but migrants mainly work for construction industry in central and western areas, followed by manufacturing industry and service.(6)Migrant workers are mainly the young people, but recently the proportion of young migrant workers has a decreasing trend, while the proportion of older migrant workers has a tendency to increase.(7)Education of migrant workers is improving, especially young migrant workers’educational level has been improved greatly, but most have not received any skills training.(8)Migrant workers’wage has been increasing since2000.Wage gap is reducing from region to region.Chapter4:the effect of rural labor inter-sector migration on regional economic growth: based on Mas-Colcll and Razin model. First, we study the mechanism of rural labor inter-sector migration on regional economic growth and convergence based on Mas-Colell and Razin model. Theoretical result is that rural labor migration lead to regional economic convergence by two ways. One is through industry nurturing agriculture to promote agricultural labor productivity convergence; it is a source of convergence. When economic development attain to a certain stage, the proportion of agricultural labor in the less developed regions is more than that of the developed regions. Because there is comparative advantage of abundant agricultural labor in the underdeveloped region, rural labor may transfer faster than that of the developed region, agricultural capital deepening speed is also faster, and agricultural labor productivity growth is also faster. So this is helpful for economic convergence. Another is agricultural labor reallocation effect. In the developed regions, because labor has reallocated from agriculture to non-agriculture, the agricultural labor reallocation contributes little to economic growth, so economic growth will slow down. Instead, in the less developed regions, due to abundant labor resources, labor costs are relatively low, so agricultural labor reallocation can still contribute to the economic growth, and the economy can also have a period of rapid growth. Therefore, rural labor inter-sector migration can contribute to regional economic convergence. Then, we empirically test the effects of inter-sector Migration on convergence in China. The main conclusions are as follows:At present, the transfer speed of agricultural labor in the central region is the fastest, the eastern region next. Growth of labor transfer speed in the western region is faster than that of the eastern region. Accordingly, the effect of rural labor inter-sector migration on agricultural economic growth is most significant in the central region, while its effect is gradually reducing in the eastern region, but there is the most potential in the western region. Agricultural labor reallocation is similar.Chapter5:the effect of rural labor inter-regional migration on regional economic growth: based on new economic geography. Firstly, we analyze the mechanism of rural labor inter-regional migration on industrial spatial distribution and regional economic growth based the core-periphery model. There are three effects driving the mechanics of model. The first is market access effect; the second is cost of living effect; the third is market crowding effect. The first two effects encourage spatial concentration while the third discourage it. When level of trade freeness reach break point, with rising openness, rural labor inter-regional migration make industry "first concentration then desperation" and regional economic growth "first divergence then convergence". It implies that rural labor inter-regional migration enlarge regional disparity at primary stage, but it is helpful to narrow regional disparity in long-term. Then, we use the space panel data model to empirically test the effect of rural labor inter-regional migration on industrial spatial distribution. The research conclusions are that migrant benefit destination’s industry; the decline of trade cost and the rising of human capital are beneficial for industrial agglomeration; the spillover effect of regional industry is significant. Data analysis also shows that the labor and industry have begun to transfer from the eastern region to the central and western regions. Finally, we use the space panel data model to empirically test the effect of rural labor inter-regional migration to regional economic growth. The research conclusions are that inter-regional migration slow down convergence speed; but it is a source of convergence in short-term. The conclusions are consistent with theoretical expectation of the core-periphery model of new economic geography.Chapter6:the main conclusions and the prospect of this research. We summarize the main conclusions and put forward some policy suggestions. Agricultural labor transfer will still contribute to economic growth for a period of time in the near future. The potential of labor reallocation is in the central and western regions by the way of industrial transfer. With industry transfer, more rural labor of the central and western regions will work in the local non-agricultural sector; regional disparity will expect to further narrow.The innovation points of this paper mainly include the following aspects:firstly, we use a dual model based on Mas-Colell and Razin model to study the impact of agricultural labor reallocation on regional economic convergence. Secondly, we analyze the impact of rural labor inter-regional migration on industrial spatial distribution and regional economic growth based on the core-periphery model. Especially, we discuss the impact of labor and industry mobility from the eastern coastal areas to the inland areas on regional economic growth. Finally, considering space related factors, the panel data model is used to empirically test the impact of rural labor inter-regional migration on China’s industrial spatial distribution and regional economic growth...
Keywords/Search Tags:Regional Economic Growth, Rural Labor Inter-Sector Migration, RuralLabor Inter-Regional Migration, Mas-Colell and Razin Model, Core-Periphery Model, Space Panel Data Model
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