Research On The Relationship Between China's Inter-provincial Population Migration And Regional Economic Development Based On A Spatial Perspective

While China is undergoing a critical stage of the population migration and economic development,there are many phenomena worth advanced research.Certain metropolises in eastern region have released population control policies which aim at limiting the migration of the population while the rural villages in western region are facing decaying problem and "left-behind" children due to the exodus of population.Simultaneously,the above phenomena along with the on-going labor shortage issues in the coastal region and the spectacular developing speed and scale of the new booming cities in the central and western regions all appear to us that our country is walking through a critical period of the population migration and the economic developmentHuman being is the main body in the economic activity.The labor force is an important factor influencing the economy.When the natural birth rate of the populationis generally low,the population migration constitutes an important way to change the spatial allocation of the labor force.The population migration can influence the economic development through the changes in the spatial distribution of the labor.At the same time,economic factor is also an important factor of the population migration.There is a pattern considering the spatial agglomeration in the population migration and the economic development.The research of the relationship among "population-economy-space" is an important aspect of the study of current population migration and economic development.This dissertation analyzes three main aspects-(1)the first one is the general situation and spatial characteristics of population migration in China.It includes the general situation of migration as indicated by the migration area,gender,age and reason,as well as the migration spatial difference based on the net migration rate of population;(2)the second one is to take net migration rate as the main index of population migration and take GDP per capita as the main indicator of economic growth.This dissertation uses the empirical research based on observing and measuring the relationship between provincial migration spatial difference and economic growth;and(3)the third one is the empirical analysis on the influencing factors of interprovincial migration.It builds cross-sectional model and panel model to analyze the economic and social factors that affect population migration.The main findings and conclusions of this dissertation are as followsFirstly,the concentration of in-migrant and out-migrant places has being solidified,but the trend is decelerating.From 1996 to 2015,in our country,Beijing,Tianjin,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,as the core of the eastern coastal areas,are the main places of in-migrant while the main places of out-migrant are the economically underdeveloped provinces in the central and western region that is not rich per capita possession of resource.Taking the long term perspective,this trend has not changed.However,the net migration rates in the main in-migrant areas keep stable on a downward trend.Secondly,the cross zone of population migration experiences a process of differentiation.Some cities are expected to form a new population growth pole.Given that the large migration pattern unchanged,some cities in the western and central China have higher population migration rate,and are expected to grow into new population growth poles as urbanization goes on.Although the economic radiation areas of these cities are also attracted by the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,the ring Bohai and other national urban agglomerations,there is a trend of cross transition and two-way attraction,but these cities have strong attraction for their radiation population.Therefore,strengthening these in-migrant factors will contribute to the further development of these urban agglomerations and form a relatively balanced national urban agglomeration pattern.Thirdly,the migration of population and the economic development show obvious correlation and agglomeration.Through the analysis of the net migration rate of population and the scatter plot of Moran's I and Lisa plot of GDP per capita,both of these two indicators have obvious regional clustering and correlation.The place where the net migration rate of population is highly concentrated is also the place where the value of GDP per capita is high.In view of the spatial concentration of net migration rate,the net migration rate of population has obvious spatial agglomeration effect.Fourthly,the net migration rate plays an important role to promote the economic growth.It is proved after conducting the theoretical and empirical analysis.This dissertation uses Douglas production function to build a model of population migration and economic growth,showing that there is a positive correlation between per capita labor income and net migration rate of population.Based on the panel model adopting the above theories and the National Bureau of statistics data from 2000 to 2015 for empirical analysis,the per capita capital and net migration rate of the region play a positive role in promoting the per capita income of labo,the statistical results show significantly.Fifthly,the factors contributing to the population migration include economic disparity,income disparity,cost-of-living index,welfare and housing price index.Among this,(1)per capita GDP and per capita wage that are closely related to the level of economic development are the pull factors to increase the net migration of population;(2)The second factor,the distance between the two places,restrains the population migration;(3)The third factor,the housing price of the immigrant area,has a positive relation;(4)The fourth factor,the social welfare,plays a positive role in promoting the population;and(5)the fifth is the cost-of living index.As the push factor,it has negative effects on population migration.The following policy suggestions are made based on the above conclusion,(1)important in-migrant areas must improve the capacity of supplying public service system,enhance the carrying capacity and quality,and promote economic restructuring and upgrading;(2)important population out-migrant areas should have well-planned scientific,industrial and infrastructure,proper arrangement of public services and social welfare,and rational docking of regional central cities;(3)the later urbanization area should strengthen population construction factors,coordinate the population and economic agglomeration,and reasonably connect with the center city in such reason;and(4)our country needs to strengthen coordination of the national welfare in order to minimize the negative effects of population migration and economic development and seek for a more balanced relationship(5)improve relevant institution to promote the labor migration.