| Since the economic restructuring in china, remarkable achievements have been made in economic growth. But as the high speed of population growth, industrialization and urbanization, the scale of construction land is expanding rapidly, which leads to the accelerated loss of natural resources, especially farmland resources. The statistics show that during the period of 1978-1989, 158,100 hm2 farmland resources were used for construction every year; this figure increased to 168,100 hm2 between 1990 and 1999, even to 213,300 hm2 in the period of 2000-2007. The loss of farmland resources will certainly threaten the security of national grain and the social stability, which has appealed the whole world attention to China’s food security and land-use issues, especially after the proposition of“who will feed China in the 21st century”presented by Brown. Meanwhile, the protection of environment is also far from being satisfactory. The related researches show that almost 4-6 percentage of the GDP growth (9.80% as a whole) is produced by resources and environmental cost, including the natural resources depletion, ecological damage and pollution during the whole 1990s.As a result, we can make a judgment that China’s sustainable development faces dilemma, transferring more farmland resources into construction land to support the rapid economic growth, or limiting this transfer to protect the basic lifelines of people and improve the living environment for human beings. If we focus our research on the management and allocation of land resource in china, then three major realistic problems are presented. First is the problem of feeding. Under the strictest farmland protection system in the world, the losses of Chinese farmland resources are quite surprising and certainly will threaten the food supplying for 1,300 million people. Secondly, it is the problem of construction. The construction land allocation has strongly been arranged by administrative power, that is to say the policy or planning plays a leading role in this process. For example, the government directly controlled the allocation of the newly increased construction land after the policy for stopping the transfer of farming land in 1997. In addition, the formulation and implementation of land use planning is an administrative process that the targets are allocated from top to down, and the lack of scientific analysis and prediction results in that the non-equilibrium of regional economic development is not fully considered. That is, the area with high land marginal contribution cannot get more construction land and the efficiency of space allocation of construction land is rather low. Thirdly, it is the problem about ecology. The allocation of the increment construction land is not related to the natural endowment, comparative advantage and loss of regional farmland resources. So, excessive land for construction will threaten the security of ecology. Meanwhile, according to the economics principle, it is difficult to reach the effective market equilibrium between supply shortage and excessive demand. That is to say, just thinking about increasing demand or allocation of construction land without considering the supply (the losses of other resources such as farmland) is less significant. Therefore, we can judge that how to coordinate the relationship between feeding, construction and ecology will be the increasingly prominent dilemma in China.Based on the judgment mentioned above, this research mainly answers the following questions:①Facing the dilemma of choice, this research constructs the theoretical frame for analyzing the farmland loss and increment construction land allocation based on the interaction of multi-subjects, which can provide a new path for resources allocation and public policy.②Under the clear allocating target, we firstly measure the ideal, moderate, negative goals of farmland protection and the three allocation scenarios of increment construction land which are ideal, moderate and negative based on dividing the price of farmland loss and excessive loss (I, II) theory. Then the effect of market mechanism is further explored to provide quantitative reference and realistic basis for improving the“Pareto”allocation of public resource.③Based on correct choice of realistic path, we pioneering proposes and measure the ideal, moderate and extreme boundary of urban expansion in the perspective of spatial balance of land price, which provides spatial reference system for the microscopic configuration of increment construction land. In order to achieve the above research targets, we take the“dilemma”that China faces in sustainable development as a starting point, the configuration of increment construction land as the main line, the farmland protection and rational target selection as the premise, and mainly focus on the optimization of macro, meso and micro configuration of increasing construction land in order to realize the aims of sustainable development. So, this paper is divided into main four sections that are eight chapters altogether. They are the section of questions and literature review (including the first and second chapter), the section of quantity analyses and configuration premise (Chapter 3rd), the allocation goal and realistic route section (Including the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th chapter) and full-text summary (Chapter 8th).The first part of the thesis is the starting point of increment construction land allocation research---the analysis framework. The section mainly focused on the construction of the analysis framework on the basis of literature review,including definition of research questions, the basic concepts, main research content, research thoughts and methods, data sources and technical route. Then we clearly define the research basis of increment construction land allocation in china which is farmland protection, and the key which is path and the end-result which concludes policy innovation and so on.The second part of the thesis is the research basis of increment construction land allocation----farmland protection. Farmland protection, which is the premise of the increment construction land allocation, has been determined by the situation of large population and few lands and the strictest farmland protection system. So, based on analyzing the farmland source data, the chapter grasps the transferring law from farmland to construction land and calculates the rational goal of the farmland preservation. The results show that if the ecological restoration is suspended, the amount of farmland resources must be protected at least 1.21×108 hm~2 in 2020, as well as rational goals of the farmland preservation in every province or municipality being calculated. The central and local governments need to make these appropriate goals (see table 3-7) as quantitative premise and rational constraint for the increment construction land allocation in space-time.The third part of the thesis is the key of increment construction land allocation research---the target path. Based on the analyses and judgments discussed in the first three chapters, we analyze the mechanism of the economic growth and construction land expansion at first. Then, we define the relationship of the increment construction land allocation and sustainable use and the criteria for achieving the optimum allocation at the theoretical level. Finally, on the basis of analyzing the possibility of optimal allocation, we put forward the realistic paths to achieve the sustainable development which are optimizing the increment construction land allocation in macro, meso and micro levels respectively. They could provide a framework arrangement and theoretical guidance for the following in-depth study.At the macro level of increment construction land allocation research, we mainly discuss the role of the government. That is without breaking the increment construction land allocation premise which means farmland preservation, we need to fully play roles of the macro-control of governments and promote the land resources allocation continually closing to the optimal state. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing the scale of China’s construction land, this chapter attempts to change the regular research thinking and infer the increment of construction land and its limits in different space-time through building inversion model and marginal model from the aspects of the farmland loss and economic development. In short-term, the rational allocation size of the increment construction land is 3.25×105 hm~2 and 3.60×105 hm~2 and the total size of construction land should not exceed 3.37×10~7 hm~2 and 3.71×10~7 hm~2 in 2010 and 2020 years respectively. Different provinces (municipalities, or autonomous regions) should distribute the increment construction land in space-time based on the rational scales (See the table 5-5). In the long run, the growth limit of construction land in China occurs in the year 2047. The growth limits of construction land in different provinces (cities) can be graded roughly along the southeast-northwest in space-time. The eastern areas reach the growth limit earlier, among which, 11 provinces (cities) such as Shanghai, Jiangsu and so on are earlier than the national average limit year, while some other provinces such as Jilin, Sichuan and so on maybe later.We mainly discuss the role of the market at the meso level of increment construction land allocation. This chapter attempts to introduce a market mechanism to study the possibility of the initial increment transaction. The results show that under the consumption that transaction costs is zero or very small, fully using the role of market mechanism at the meso-level and allowing the trading of increment construction land can indeed improve the efficiency of the land resource allocation and achieve the Pareto improvements of the land-use total welfare. Practice surveys and studies find that 74.24 percent of surveyed people basically approve for the trade of current indicators. Meanwhile, the new round survey about willingness of indicators transaction finds that 92.27 percent of surveyed people express the farmland (including the basic farmland) and construction land (including the new occupation of farmland) require off-site transaction or regulation, but the indicators trade is greatly different in regions, types or characteristics, sizes and prices and the transformation from the theory into reality faces many obstacles. Adjustments of land policies have significant impacts on the protecting trade willingness (such as farmland and basic farmland), but relatively less impact on the developing trade willingness (such as construction land and its increment). This demonstrates that the transaction willingness of the increment construction land is stable.At the level of microcosmic increment construction land allocation, we mainly discuss the role of the control. Based on the above studies, this chapter attempts to explore the function of the land use control in the increment construction land. That is, at the micro-level, we shold study on the space allocation problems of the increment construction land in urban expansion process. So based on analyzing the trend of China’s urban spatial expansion, this chapter compares different expansion mechanism at home and abroad for the first time, and further put forward two important theoretical propositions which are suitable for China. Then, we take urban area of Nanjing as an example for empirical analysis. Finally, on the basis of comparing the empirical results with the control area of urban planning, we clearly define the important areas and expansion directions where the increment construction land should be put on. The results show that Nanjing should put a large number of the increment construction land indicators and investments in Jiangnan such as Jiangning, Yuhuatai and Qixia but not Jiangbei district. From a rational perspective, at this stage the urban expansion scale of Jiangnan district should not exceed 5.82×104hm~2 which is very close to the urban planning control scale of 5.81×104hm~2. While defining the rational space expansion scope in the appropriate boundary (yellow boundary line in Fig.7-11) is more scientific and rational.The fourth part is the end-result of the increment construction land allocation research---policy innovation. Based on the above findings, this chapter makes a summary of the main study results and proposes appropriate policy recommendations. Firstly, at the stage of economic restructuring, the government should play its macro-lead role in the allocation of the increment construction land and focus on the fair allocation of land resources. Secondly, we should also improve the market regulation mechanism in meso-level and enhance the efficiency of the land resources allocation. Thirdly, we need to strengthen the role of space in micro-control, and guide the rational allocation of the increment construction land, and eventually achieve sustainable utilization of land resources and the society sustainable development.The main innovation of this thesis is that the theoretical framework of the analysis of farmland loss and increment construction land allocation has been systematically constructed based on interdisciplinary thought. At the macro level, the thesis firstly measures the ideal, moderate and negative target of increment construction land allocation and farmland protection in China, which provides new path for optimizing the allocation of resources and public policy research. All this is a theoretic breakthrough. At the micro level, we quantitatively explores the ideal, moderate and limited boundary of urban expansion for the first time, and selects the moderate border as the strategy of urban spread control which is suitable for China’s national conditions, which is another innovation in practice. In addition, the researches at each level can connect the international mainstream research methods with realistic problems of construction land allocation together, which not only promote the innovation of increment construction land allocation and farmland protection research, but also provide strategic policy advice for government decision-making. Meanwhile, the research can also get international academic recognition and attention. |
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