| The first decade of the 21 century witnesses the acceleration of transformation in the textile global production networks as a result of China’s WTO accession in 2001, the last 5 years of transitional Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and the elimination of Multi-Fiber Arrangement in 2005. China, as the world’s largest exporter, manufacturer and potential consuming country in textiles, has been affected by the adjustment of global structure. The development of China’s textile industry is also affected by various forces in GPN transformation context.The research on structural movements is the basis to study industrial relocation, upgrading and relevant issues. It is significant, both theoretically and practically, to explore the structure of global textile industry, the interrelated changes and the law in dynamic movements for the harmony of world textile, the adjustment of structure and change of growing mode in China textile, and the sustainable development of the industry. Firstly, China’s economic growth benefits from the manufacturing and its rising share in global market, and textile industry is one of the most important sectors in China’s manufacturing. It is of practical significance to study this sector from the global perspective. Secondly, it is helpful for setting the pathway of China’s industrial adjustment and upgrading to analyze the dynamic movements of China textile in global division, competition and networks. Thirdly, considering the weakness in the current mode of growth, a study in structure can pave the way for the relocation and transformation of China textile. Fourthly, our prediction in the competitiveness and growth of China textile can be supportive for the strategic decision of "adjusting the structure and changing the growing mode", the "12th five-year plan" and in developing the long term economic goals.The study starts from desk research by tracing the evolution of the world’s textile economy and trade structure in the past 10 years and the role of China in the context, then analyses the effects of MAF elimination on the re-structuring of GPN, the growth in the size of China’s textile sector and its competitiveness. Based on the logic of Context-Structure-Conduct-Performance, the author uses Markov Transition Matrix model and Constant Market Share (CMS) model to make comparison between the main suppliers of textiles and clothing industry while setting Chinese textile industry as the main research object. The study explores the transition process and mechanism of global trade re-structuring by analyzing the data in 3 sectors of products, namely, textile fibre (SITC 26), textile products (SITC 65) and clothing (SITC 84) and interprets the change of Chinese textile in global production networks, the factors from structure and competitiveness which contribute to trade growth. The textiles & clothing market is full of competition. The change in market shares processed by major suppliers is consequent to the stochastic selection of numerous consumers and buyers in global market. Markov Transition Matrix probability process can show the characteristics and mechanism of the transition in market structure. Aggregate data of 2000-2008 are used to get Markov Transiton Matrix while the data after 2008, which is influenced by global financial crisis, are not used so as to produce a stable environment where market transition rules can be fully functional. The author gets the Markov transition matrix of textiles products (SITC 65) and clothing (SITC 84) of China, EU 15, ASEAN 10+1 and others suppliers in OECD market through Mimimum Absolute Diviations Estimator. The estimated Markov transition matrix of textiles and clothing is used to make prediction afterward, in which the result shows that the model has good fitting degree and the expression is stable and convergent. From the estimated Markov transition matrix of textiles and clothing, China’s textile industry enjoys the biggest "loyalty", which proves that China textiles and clothing are and still go on to be the Preferred Supplier of Choice in OECD market. The estimated Markov Transition Matrix of textiles and clothing can also be used to make prediction in advance for OECD market. In this study, two Markov matrix are estimated in textiles and clothing respectively to predict the market share performance of suppliers in OECD market for 2009-2015.The author uses Constant Market Share model to interpret the competitiveness of China textile in terms of markets, products and prices and measure the performance of other suppliers for comparison. The result of CMS analysis shows that the growth of world market and competitiveness in prices are still the main factors contributing to China’s trade in textile, the competitiveness in prices is decreasing year on year and the contribution from product structure and market structure is relatively much lower, which is in compliance with the results of co-integration between China’s textile and world’s textile. According to the result of CMS analysis, the EU 15 have low competitiveness in OECD market, but the contributing factor of world market to their trade growth is relatively high. It shows that the developed economies also benefit from the growth of world market, and can leads to a significantly theoretical conclusion that trade liberalization is not only beneficial to the developing countries but also to the advanced economies.The CMS analysis leads to a conclusion that textiles & clothing sector is still the springboard for developing countries and LDCs. They still deprive the competitiveness from the cost advantages in intextiles and clothing sector, which is typically labor intensive. For ASEN 10+1, the contribution from product and market has been relatively low since the phasing-out of MFA. CMS model analysis reveals an important turning point. The author uses CMS to gradually approach on basis of the benchmark of end point, which can be regarded as evaluating extreme value, so this process can show the dynamic movement of parameters. The changes in the parameters are in compliance with theoretical interpretation in economics, which constitutes valuable findings as authentication to theory.CMS and MTM are both effective tools in structure analysis. It is a new attempt to use them both in interpreting the restructuring of textile GPN and the structure of growth and competitiveness of global players including China. The author employs the two modals under the unified paradigm and gets results in compliance with each other. CMS is a static model in terms of algorithm, but dynamic movements can be obtained through stagewise method. The final year is set as the benchmark to get progressive approximation and the process is proved similar to approximation against time stages in a 4-dimentional space. Based on the diffrentials between the data of ajoining stages, the calculation shows the growth of individual parameters and the dynamic movement is reflected in the parameter series. The CMS parameters also carry other dynamic information, among which the turing points shown in the results is strictly applies to the theretical desk analysis. |
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