The Markov Chains Of China's Energy Consumption Structure Transition

Energy is the essential material foundation for the multiplication of human beings as well as advance of the society. It also guarantees the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards. With rapid growth of China's economy and the continuous progress on energy technology, the traditional structures of energy consumptions, of which coal weighs a lot, cannot meet the needs of modernization and should be rearranged in no time. Therefore the studies on the energy consumption structure will give scientific evidence to policy-making and energy-related planning. The relevant researches have a very important realistic sense for the healthy, stable and sustainable growth of our national economy. And they will also play a positive role in the establishing of an energy saving and harmonious society.This paper focuses on the energy consumption structure, trying to find out the rules of its temporal changing and spatial distribution. The following works are done:Firstly, the time series of China's energy consumption structures are split into four periods and the Markov transition probability models are built. We simulate the character of the transition of energy consumption structures in each period and make a comparison between them. The results are: The processes of energy consumption structure transition from mode 1 to mode 2, and mode 2 to mode 3 are moderate, without any essential changes. Compared with the first 3 modes, mode 4 changes significantly and could be viewed as a completely new one statistically.Secondly, considering the characteristic of energy resources distribution in different regions and the level of economic development, we divide all the 31 provinces of China into three types, which comply with different modes of energy consumption separately. In each group, the most representative one is picked out. The simulation about the transition mode of the energy consumption structure in different provinces and the comparison between them are based on the representations.Finally, we make a forecast on the structure of national energy consumption in the year 2005, 2006, and 2008.