| Since the reform and opening, our economy has been developing rapidly. Especially since1990s, our economy has obviously entered the rapid growth phase of industrial economy which early industrialized countries had experienced. The process of industrialization has accelerated the consumption of non-ferrous metal mineral resources. The consumption of copper, aluminum, nickel and other non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources increases desperately, the growth of their reserves can’t keep up with the growth of their output, and the growth of their output can’t keep up with the growth of their demand, so the supply shortfall has been increasing all the while, their security and supply-demand situation have been getting worse. Overseas experiences show that there is an important way to ensure the security of the Much-lacking mineral resources which is to build a strategic reserve system for mineral resources and to control its release effectively. With the support of some subjects, the paper states the following aspects about non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources.(1)On the base of defining the concept of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources, the writer has designed the evaluating indicator system about the Much-lacking extent of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, used the analytical hierarchy process to evaluate the Much-lacking extent of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony and other non-ferrous metal minerals, put forward that copper, aluminum, cobalt, zinc and nickel belong to non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources by the golden section law, given the judgment standard of supply interruption from the qualitative and quantitative point of view, and analyzed the inner mechanism, basic principle, reserve mode and its important role of the strategic reserves of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking minerals.(2)The aim to reserve strategically non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is to guarantee their supply security. For estimating their reasonable reserve deal, we take not only demand factors such as national political, economic and military situation, but also the supply factors such as the country’s financial condition, national policies, the import dependence, import source characteristics, the reserves cost, the opportunity cost of production, and the various cost of supply disruption into consideration. Because the statistics about non-ferrous metals is limited in our country, this paper, based on the supply security of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources and cost control, establishes their strategic reserve scale model. On the basis of analyzing the establishment process of the developed country’s mineral strategic reserves, we constitute the principles when our country reverses non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources. We apply the dynamic planning theory to establish the model about when our country should reverse the non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources with the premise of two kinds of supply state.(3)Releasing the strategic reserve of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is the inevitable step to exert their function. Draw lessons from the developed countries, the scientific decision-making procedure about releasing the strategic reserve is constituted in the paper. Applying the real options theory, we establish the value model to estimate the strategic reserve’s value and the conversion model about when our country should release the strategic reserves and not, and achieve their general solution.(4)The management is the important measure to make the strategic reserve and release system of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources effective. An emergency organization system is designed by using emergency management ideas, which is leaded by the government, non-ferrous metal industry departments is its major and other related departments support. On the basis of choosing stakeholder governance model, the stakeholder co-governance mechanism and the interest share mechanism for the strategic reserves organization of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is designed.(5)Taking copper resources for an example, utilizing the quantitative model established above, combining the domestic demand and supply situation from1995-2008, we estimated the strategic reserves scale of the refined copper, the outcome shows that our country should reserve461.1thousand tons in2002to ensure the supply security of copper resources. On the assumption that the risk-free interest rate r, the reserve units operating costs(release costs) C and the unit storage cost E all are no change, when the price of refined copper is above$8,854per ton, we should release the reserves. |
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