| The automobile industry is the important leading pillar industry of China; it hasthe characteristic of strong industry relevance and intensive technology. Thedevelopment of the automobile industry directly influences the development of manynational economy departments, and also affects the optimization and upgrading ofindustrial structure in the process of industrialization.In recent years, China’s automobile industry developed rapidly, the auto outputreached18.2647million in2010, which is the first of the world. Although the autoproduction has taken the first position, but comparing with auto developed countries,there are still a big gap within technology, structure, management and efficiency. Atpresent, what are the size and structure for our automobile industry, how are theindustry association and spread effect of automobile industry, how is the pull effect ofautomobile industry to other industry and the employment, and what is the efficiencyof the automobile industry, how are the evolution trend to the industry associationeffect and efficiency of automobile industry, all of these have become the attentionproblems to government, enterprises and the academic area.Based on the relative theories, we used statistical data to analyze the industryscale, structure and characteristics of industrial cluster development of China’sautomobile industry systematically, used input-output model to discuss the industryassociation, industry spread effect of automobile industry and their dynamic evolution.Meanwhile based on the input and output theory, we established the employment pullmodel to automobile industry, and then analyzed the direct effect, completeemployment and dynamic evolution trend of China’s automobile industry; After theanalysis of automobile’s overall efficiency with added value rate, we discussed theefficiency and dynamic evolution of China’s automobile industry from the view ofsub-industry and region, based on the DEA Malmquist productivity index, which provided the reference to the situation of the automobile industrydevelopment,existing problems, the law of automobile industry development, thepolicy of automobile industry development, the healthy development of theautomobile industry, and the economic growth.The paper is divided into six chapters, as follows:Chapter1Introduction. Firstly we introduced the background and significance ofthis study. Secondly reviewed research status of industrial association which based oninput-output theory and industrial efficiency domestic and abroad, finally summarizedthe framework of this paper, the main contents and research methods.Chapter2Relative theory overview. This chapter is the theoretical basis for thewhole analysis, illustrated the theory of industrial structure, industrial labor division,industrial clusters and efficiency, and finally introduced the theory of the automobileindustry.Chapter3The dynamic characteristics of China’s automobile industry. Firstly weanalyzed the scale characteristics and evolution law of China’s automobile industryfrom1991to2009, with the production scale, economies scale, employment scale andthe scale of firms’ number. Secondly, analyzed the structural characteristics ofChina’s automobile industry comprehensively from the perspective of the structure ofthe leading products, structure of corporate economic type, regional structure andimport—export structure, applying the methods of comparing economic indicatorsand cluster analysis. At the end of this chapter, we analyzed the development featuresof China’s automobile cluster. From two aspects of performance characteristics andprofessional characteristics which reflect the cluster level, we evaluated on the currentstatus of six major cluster of China’s automobile industry with the method of factoranalysis and the relative index comparison.Chapter4The evolution of industry association and the spread effect of China’sautomobile industry. This chapter begins with the analysis of the supply and demandrelationship and the evolution between China’s automobile industry and otherassociated industries based on the input-output theory, according to the data of1997,2002,2007input-output tables. The results showed that the demand and supplyrelationship between the automobile industry and other sectors did not change too much, in addition to the largest value of direct consumption coefficient and thecomplete consumption coefficient to itself, other industries that keeping closer withautomobile industry were manufacturing departments. Direct consumption andcomplete consumption of automobile industry to business services have graduallyhighlighted, which showed the services provided by the tertiary industry has becomean important intermediate inputs to the automobile industry. In addition, from thedirect consumption and complete consumption of other sectors to the automobileindustry, the departments with large direct consumption coefficient are the roadtransport, road freight, and business services sectors, which indicated the automobileindustry, provided an important intermediate input to these sectors. It reflected thecharacteristics of its basic industries. The rate of the intermediate demand ofautomobile industry was greater than50%during the three periods, which showedthat the automobile industry provided factors of production to other sectors. Thedeclining rate of intermediate demand indicated a trend that automobile industrytranslated its product to the final demand industry. The rate of intermediate inputs ofChina’s automobile industry was also greater than50percent, which showed theobvious characteristics of "low value-added, high pull-effect". The pull-effect modelshowed that automobile industry increased1unit output will be able to create theadded value of49units for the national economy during the three periods, whichreflected its high pull-effect to the development of national economic. Secondly, weused industry influence, industry sensitivity, and production-induced coefficient toanalyze the spread effects of China’s automobile industry dynamically. The resultsshowed that the influence coefficients of the automobile industry are greater than1during the three periods, and indicated that the effect of automobile industry tovarious departments of the national economy were stronger than the average of thevarious departments. That is, automobile industry played an important role indeveloping the national economy. This pulling effect showed an increasing trend aswell. Although the sensitivity coefficient fluctuated, the value were greater than1, itindicated the degree of sensitivity of automobile industry was stronger than theaverage level. The analysis of production-induced effects showed that investmentinduced the largest production of the automobile industry, there are more than50 percent of the total output of automobile industry was induced by investment.Chapter5The evolution of pull—effect on employment induced by China’sautomobile industry. Firstly, we established the employment pull model ofautomobile industry output, and then the analysis based on the data of1997,2002,2007input-output tables showed the direct and complete employment contribution ofautomobile industry’s output had declined in the three periods. The ratio of directemployment and indirect employment was changed from1:4.09in1997to1:2.73in2007. The employment pull effect of automobile industry to industry sector was themost significant, but lower to the tertiary industry. Secondly, apply employment pullmodel of final demand to measure the employment effect. It showed the greatestdirect employment contribution of their own was produced by investment, the directemployment contribution produced by consumption and export were increased. Fromthe complete employment contribution, investment of automobile industry producedthe greatest sum of direct and indirect employment during the three periods. At theend of this chapter, we analyzed the influence and dynamic evolution of automobileemployment caused by consumption, investment and exports. The results illustratethat investment employment coefficient of the automobile industry was more thanconsumption and export. That proved investment is effective to stimulateemployment growth of China’s automobile industry. But the investment employmentcoefficient declined, and the employment coefficients of consumption and exportwere rising, which confirmed the change of the final demand structure effect onemploymentChapter6The dynamic evolution of efficiency of China’s automobile industry.Firstly we explained the evaluation index of efficiency of automobile industry.Secondly, measured automobile efficiency in recent10years using the rate of addedvalue, the results showed that the added value grew at an average rate of22.14%annually, slight less than the average growth rate of the investment of22.93%. Inaddition, it also get some inspirational conclusions: when the added value of a year isgrowing even faster than investment, the added value has the positive growth rate,that is, the value added rate rose; Conversely, the negative growth rate of addedvalue, the declined added value of that rate. When the new intermediate input contribution coefficients for some year was larger than the intermediate inputcontribution coefficients of last year, changes in the rate of the added value ispositive, that is, the increasing trend of the overall added value rate. Finally, weapplied the method of Malmquist productivity index to calculate the efficiencyevolution of automobile industry as sub-industry, region, and cluster view. Theresults indicate the total factor productivity of sub-industry, region, and cluster ofChina’s automobile industry were significantly rising, and the main driving force wasthe technological progress.At last, it is the conclusion of this paper. |
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