The Research On Sustainable Development Of Coal Industry Based On System Dynamics

The coal industry, as a basic factor, plays a very important part in the development of the society and economy. It is a major complex system that builds on the basement of the utilization of the nature, population and economy.How to keep the sustainability of the coal industry is prerequisite and guarantee of the realization of the goal of how to achieve the purpose of keeping the steady development of the sustainable development of the society of EconomyThe present dissertation, based on the intensive study of the recent research concerning the recent the sustainable development both abroad and at home, and summary of the developments and fruits achieved in this field to try to analysis and study the sustainability of coal resource, economy, population and environment in a comprehensive system, according to the theory of sustainable development, and try to build a model of dynamical systematic study of countermeasures for the sustainable of coal mining industry in order to make clear of the scope of the theme of the further research, and in an effort to make clear the exactitude and effectiveness of the research.This dissertation composes a Dynamo equation which is based on the imitative experiment of causality of the coal mining industrial production and natural resource, the inner construct composition of population and variety, the social behavior and process to make a predictive description of the tendency of the sustainable development of coal mining industry in the future, and it also makes a study of the alteration of the parameter of technology and economy, the interference of political factor, and also the influence of alteration upon the systematic behavior.The dissertation also makes a thorough and systematic study of the affective countermeasures for the sustainable development of the coal industry in specific region, resource condition, environment, factor and economic condition. It aims at offering some proper and valuable suggestions for the alteration of the orientation of total increase to the orientation of improvement of structure.It argues that it is necessary to form a new industrial construction of coal and none-coal industry on various levels to give some sound reasons for the decision of the sustainable development of the coal industry, as well as that of other trades.The dissertation applies the set model of systematical study of the countermeasure of the sustainable development of coal industry to the coal industry in Guizhou province, and makes use of the computer software Vensim to evaluate the parameter of the model, the sensibility factor, and the development of coal industry in the future.It aims to prove both theoretically and practically the method to be effective in process of a dynamical analysis of the fulfillment of the actual cases.Based on the analysis of sustainable development of coal industry, population, economy and environment in Guizhou province, according to the results of simulated emulation of the major indexes in the subsystems, the dissertation tries to offer some reference suggestions of the sustainable development of coal industry in provincial regions in our country, while having put forward some tactics of the sustainable development of coal industry in Guizhou province.