China’s Farm Producc Trade Deficit:General Pattern,Factors And Solutions

China is an agricultural country with a big population. Farm produce trade plays a vital role in the country. It matters greatly to the nation, to the livelihood of the people, to the economic growth, and to the social stability. That is why its continuing imbalance has caused wide attention in the country.This dissertation, by taking advantage of economics and management theories and adopting grey-correlation theory analysis, multi-variable regression analysis, normative analysis, data collection and statistics analysis, makes a thorough and systemic research into the key issues of agricultural products trade imbalance such as the pattern, contributing factors and the impact.The paper first describes the domestic and international agricultural product trade development status, elaborates on China’s agricultural products trade deficit scale, structure and development trend. The development of agricultural products trade, whether viewed in the context of the world or domestically, is never smooth or linear; but the general trend is upward. Our continuing agricultural trade imbalance is mainly in general trade. The deficit scale right now is acceptable; however, with its fast pace, it will make little room for acceptance. In our country, the main imbalance products are land-intensive products. The source markets of imbalance come from South America, North America and Oceania. At home, it is the provinces in the east area.Then, based on the export and import perspective, the paper analysis the influence factors of the agricultural products trade deficit and using the gray connection analysis for its empirical econometric.In the export of influencing factor, according to the influence degree respectively produce domestic in short supply, domestic demand is exuberant, agricultural mechanization level is low, produce weak foreign demand, the appreciation of the r RMB, the international competitiveness of agricultural products is low, the state of agricultural products export support not enough; In the import factor, according to the influence degree for agricultural products, domestic in short supply of agricultural products increasing domestic demand, agricultural labor cost rise, agricultural products import tariff reduction, the import of agricultural products prices, the appreciation of the RMB and agricultural investment inadequacy.The third, in terms of import and export factors, short supply and heavy demand at home are the main reasons for this imbalance. In the short term, adverse trade imbalance may help to the safety and security of the food market at home; but in the long run, it will spell a food crisis to the country. Agricultural imbalance has considerably affected agriculture growth and the growth of income of farmers. However, it has minimal effect on the agricultural job market.Finally, to reverse this trend, besides borrowing foreign experiences and taking our own condition into account, the main solution is to increase home productivity, expand exports and reduce imports. The first, increase produce to domestic production, reduce the import scale:strict protection and make full use of existing farmland resource; to increase agricultural and rural investment, arouse kind of grain enthusiasm of the farmer; to advance agricultural science and technology innovation and transformation, raise content of agricultural science and technology; strengthen infrastructure construction, improve agriculture to develop an environment. Second, expand exports of agricultural products: active participation in the WTO negotiations on agricultural trade and international rules and standards; the export structure of agricultural products, enhance China’s international competitiveness of agricultural products; encourage agricultural enterprises, overseas investment; strengthen the agricultural product export domestic support strength. Third, to protect domestic market of agricultural products:a good grasp of the import of agricultural products structure; rational use of agricultural products import protection, namely, continue to carry out agricultural products tariff quota management, use produce special safeguard clause, improve agricultural productivity, reasonable utilization of non-tariff barriers.This research is helpful to the government in adjusting its agricultural structure and agricultural trade structure, in formulating and carrying out policies with regard to export expansion, lowering trade deficit, deficit scale control, and food safety.