Study On The Dynamic Evolution And Driving Factors Of China’s Agricultural Trade Under The Double Cycle Development Pattern

China has proposed a dual circular development strategy in response to changes in the global economic and trade situation,with agricultural product trade being an important link.However,current research on the structure of agricultural product trade mostly explores the network pattern,trade flow efficiency,potential,and influencing factors of single agricultural product trade from a global or regional perspective.Based on the comparative analysis of the evolution process nodes of agricultural product trade,combined with the dual circulation operation mechanism,this study explores the driving factors and mechanisms of the structural changes in China’s agricultural product import and export trade under this pattern,grasps the evolution law of China’s agricultural product trade pattern,and proposes strategies for the high-quality development of China’s agricultural product trade in the new era,which has distinct theoretical value and practical significance.This study is based on the era background of the dual cycle development pattern,and takes a comparative analysis of the historical nodes of China’s agricultural product trade structure evolution after joining the World Trade Organization as the context.It deconstructs the influencing factors and driving mechanisms in the evolution process of China’s agricultural product trade from three dimensions: trade network,trade scale,and regional structure.Firstly,we will review the dynamic evolution of China’s agricultural product trade and measure the stage differences and time-varying characteristics of China’s agricultural product trade scale and regional trade structure through descriptive statistical analysis.Secondly,based on the social network analysis method,a global agricultural trade network was constructed,and the network characteristics were analyzed from three aspects: "whole region individual",further analyzing China’s position change in the global agricultural trade network.Subsequently,QAP correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to clarify the important influencing factors of the evolution of China’s agricultural product trade network under the dual cycle development stage.Once again,based on the modified constant market share model,this study conducts a bidirectional decomposition of changes in China’s agricultural product import and export from three aspects: trade scale,trade structure,and trade competitiveness.From a dynamic perspective,this study empirically analyzes the influencing factors of changes in China’s agricultural product import and export scale under the dual circulation pattern.Next,multiple linear regression methods were used to identify the differences in driving factors for the evolution of China’s agricultural trade regional structure between the dual cycle pattern stage and other stages.Finally,based on the results of characterization analysis and empirical analysis,propose countermeasures and suggestions to optimize China’s agricultural product trade structure under the dual cycle development pattern.Based on the above analysis and research,the following main conclusions are drawn:Firstly,China’s agricultural product trade has shown significant phased changes.In the new stage of dual cycle development,China’s agricultural product trade has formed a pattern of "large import and small export",and the trade deficit has continued to widen.Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China,the evolution of China’s agricultural product trade can be divided into seven stages: planned economy single export to earn foreign exchange(1949-1978),preliminary opening exploration(1978-1991),accelerated reform and opening up(1992-2001),rapid development(2002-2008),stable development(2009-2013),deep adjustment(2014-2019),and new development of dual circulation pattern(2020 present).Focus on analyzing the scale and regional structure of agricultural product trade after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.From the perspective of import and export scale,under the dual cycle development pattern,the import and export scale of China’s agricultural products is showing a continuous expansion trend,with weak export growth and a clear trend of continuous widening of trade deficit,forming a pattern of "large import and small export".The evolution characteristics of the regional structure of China’s agricultural product trade show that,from the perspective of inter provincial and national levels,the overall gap in the scale of agricultural product trade in the eastern,central,and western regions has always been relatively large.The eastern provinces and cities,mainly Shandong,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,and Fujian,play a huge role in agricultural product import and export trade;From the perspective of intercontinental structure,the import regional structure has shifted from Asia to Latin America,Asia,and North America,and the leading position of Asian export regions is also decreasing.Secondly,the degree of global agricultural product trade network connectivity has strengthened,and the main influencing factors of China’s agricultural product trade network pattern at different stages have differences.From the overall characteristics,the connectivity and reciprocity of the global agricultural trade network are constantly increasing,with a high network centrality and small fluctuation,and there is a trend of decentralization.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the global agricultural product trade network space presents an evolutionary feature of integration,differentiation,and reorganization.From the perspective of actors’ characteristics,the core power of entry and exit has been stable and changing,the status of a strong power of entry and exit is relatively fixed,the intermediary status of core trading countries has overall declined,and the competition for the central position of exporting countries is fierce.The importance of China in the global agricultural trade network has increased,with export participation surpassing import participation,but it is not the core of the trade network,and the trade volume and influence do not match.The empirical results of China’s participation in the global agricultural trade network indicate that the main factors affecting the international trade network of agricultural products under the dual cycle development pattern include differences in economic development level,geographical and cultural differences,political system differences,etc.,while differences in population size,agricultural resource endowment,and sustainable development indicators have no significant impact on the agricultural trade network.Third,from the perspective of trade scale changes,trade scale,trade structure and trade competitiveness at different stages have different Mode of action,directions and degrees of effect on the changes of China’s agricultural products import and export.Under the dual cycle development pattern,the market structure effect is the main decisive factor in the changes in import and export scale.Scale effect,as a secondary decisive factor,has a significant impact on exports,but its impact on imports is not significant.From the perspective of the influencing factors of China’s agricultural product exports,the export competitiveness effect was the dominant factor from 2002 to 2018,and the export structure effect was the main decisive factor in other periods,especially the market structure effect in the export structure effect had a higher proportion.The demand scale effect was a secondary determining factor affecting China’s agricultural product exports during the periods of 2002-2008 and 2018-2020,while the export competitiveness effect was a secondary determining factor during the period of 2008-2013.From the perspective of the influencing factors of China’s agricultural product imports,the import competitiveness effect is the main decisive factor affecting the changes in China’s agricultural product imports.The supply scale effect is a secondary determining factor affecting China’s agricultural product exports in all other periods except for 2018-2020,and the import structure effect is also an important factor affecting changes in China’s agricultural product imports.Fourthly,the driving factors of China’s agricultural product trade structure will generate heterogeneity due to country differences.Specifically,domestic per capita GDP,foreign per capita GDP,export offsetting import capacity,and the level of disposable income of urban residents have a significant positive effect on China’s agricultural product exports,and have a significant positive effect on China’s imported agricultural products.The effective exchange rate of the RMB has a significant negative impact on China’s agricultural exports and a significant positive impact on China’s imported agricultural products.Foreign direct investment has a significant negative impact on China’s agricultural exports and imports.The impact of average export tax rebate rate and average import tariff rate on the regional structure of China’s agricultural product trade is not significant,and further investigation and verification are needed.Based on the above research findings,under the dual cycle development pattern,we should take a high level of opening up to enable high-quality development of China’s agricultural trade,promote agricultural trade exchanges taking the "the Belt and Road" initiative as an opportunity,build a new driving force system for agricultural trade growth with innovation as the core,further optimize the structure of international trade markets,make full use of both domestic and international markets and resources,and expand the voice of trade rule making,Further strengthening China’s influence in the global agricultural trade pattern,promoting the continuous upgrading and transformation of China’s agricultural trade pattern.