| The changes in a number of factors are challenging the traditional welfare states system, such as the aging population, the globalization of financial markets and the international competitive. At the beginning of1970s, because of the intergenerational contract challenge, almost all the population in the welfare states were facing with profound changes in the age structure. From the western theory of demographic transition, it is obviously that the development of industrialization, modernization and social economy led to the transition of population structure, it is result in the trend that the birth rate and death rate from high to low, these changes would inevitably led to the aging population. We can be deduced the aging population is the inevitable result of social economic development from the theory of demographic transition. The ratio of pension payment and pensioners will dramatically change within a few years. The population aging has become the most direct challenge of pension payment ability. Now the capital intensive industry and innovation economy enterprises occupy a dominant position in the world, employment opportunities concentrated in those efficient labors because of the structural unemployment all over the world. At the same time, the trend is the enterprise to increase other production data input to replace the increased manpower cost, which will make the labor market further small. From the social perspective, family welfare production will be reduced because of the family size has shrunk. It had confirmed the cross family relationships and associations between contacts have been greatly reduced in the United States and some European countries. Multiple backgrounds integrated, the burden of aged has been increasing gradually in the whole society.Severing demographic and economic context of the development, China will encounter lots of issues in both macro and micro fields, such as the slowdown in economic growth, huge transition costs; those are definitely a huge challenge on the pension payment in near future. In a fairly long period, National basic pension insurance has to take the responsibility for China social pension. In one hand, China pension has to bear a huge historical stealth debt, in another hand, it has to be in charge of more pension requirements from aging population. The risk of pension payment ability will be bigger and bigger in future. The article evaluated the ability of China pension payment effectively under the background of aging population. In order to maintain long-term pension financial balance, the author proposed feasibility plan which will contribute to reduce financial stress and burden, resolve a part of stealth debt, narrow the funding gap, and improve the ability of pension payment. It will be helpful to promote the sustainable development of China pension system.In order to alleviate the enterprises’burden and construct a harmonious society, China not complete copy foreign models in the endowment insurance reform. It effectively combined the pay-as-you-go and the accumulation systems according to Chinese national condition. It founded united accounts of social endowment insurance system in China, the main purpose is to deal with the risk of population aging and reflect the mutual aid. It can improve the ability of endowment insurance payment although there are still many immature places. However, both in the macrocosmic and microcosmic field, China still face a lot of problems, such as economic growth slowed and the huge transition cost. It is very necessary to research the capability of Chinese pension payment and then put forward to measures.The purpose of this paper is to create a model based on the research of theory and current situation to makes suggestions on improving the payment ability of China pension. The main frame is:background issue posing-relative research-analysis of macroµ factors-model calculation-Conclusions and recommendations.The article centered on the research of improving payment ability of pension, and focused on couple of issues:First, the impact from economic&non-economic external factors and internal factors of the pension insurance system; second, the empirical research to improve the payment ability of pension based on context of aging population. This paper probed into above-mentioned issues with4parts excluding introduction:The first part, research review on pension system and payment ability.Introduced the study of classic theory in domestic and overseas pension insurance system and payment ability. They are the Life Cycle Hypothesis of the pension system changes, intergenerational overlap model, the relationship among the pension insurance system and the economy, savings, and capital markets, account structure of pension insurance system and the controversy of managing pension insurance fund in public or private.Second part, the analysis on environmental factors impacting the payment ability of pension.Including following factors, economic factors-the level of economic development, inflation, wage growth rate; noneconomic factors-government responsibility, urbanization and population structure changes; internal factors-management system in pension insurance system, pension fund operations, pension stealth debt, and other factors.Third part, the empirical research of the pension payment ability.Estimates of future population size, sex structure, age structure, analysis of the pension payments impact caused by the changes in population structure. And then, created model based on the demographic conclusions data to estimate the basic old-age insurance funds and personal funds in the account balance of payments situation, demonstrated and evaluated the ability to assume the pension payments in the future.The fourth part, policy recommendations to improve the pension ability of payment.According to the empirical results, proposed targeted improvement measures. Optimize the system policy environment in the short term, it is recommended to delay the retirement age, to accelerate improvements in the overall level, the establishment of the pension budget system and the settlement of historical arrears, and regulating pension funds collection; in the medium term to improve the pension fund efficiency and improve the financial management of pension funds, to establish a sustainable pension personal accounts, resolve the historic debt in multiple channels, diversification of investment and pension insurance funds and improve the pension insurance fund supervision and management; enhance the national economy in the long term.Making a comprehensive view to the whole dissertation, the major innovations can be consolidated as two points:First, a comprehensive analysis of the various factors that affect the ability of pension payments in both macroµ view. Pension payments ability is impacted by macro-and micro-environment external factors and their own policies and systems constraints. At present, there are few of comprehensive analysis of research on pension payment ability, this article started from economic&noneconomic factors and internal factors, analyzed those factors and their effect on ability of payment. Economic and non-economic factors are external ones. There is no denying the fact that the impacts from economic factors is great, its impacts on pension payments varied with its presence or transition through the intermediate variables. Political, social and legal factors is impacting the pension payment ability more or less, the paper concluded those as non-economic factors, to study its impact on the ability of pension payments. The system policy is endogenous factors affect the ability of pension payments to its pension payments, the impact is mainly generated in the institutional arrangements of the system design, system implementation and system security. It is more comprehensive to evaluate the ability of pension payments from both external and internal factors.Second, Population was treated separately by gender, and upgraded the model of ability of pension payment. Based on the base data from National census and China Population Statistics Yearbook(1989-2010), the paper leverage the maturing algorithm of change rate of same group (one of cohort-component method) to calculate the urban population structure in next50years, including age structure, gender structure. Those are used as basic data for empirical research of pension payments ability.The author established long-term pension income and expenditure model, subdivided population structure, and researched the impact on the ability of pension payments. In this paper, author abandoned the previous studies which utilized total population as the population factor parameters, and processed population data in accordance with the number of men and women, it better conform to the China reality that requirement of pension payments is different as life time and retirement age are different between men and women, thus, it was able to more accurately evaluate the level of pension payments. The conclusion of the article is Chinese pension short-term balance of payments; in the medium term income slightly below the branch; in long-term serious income over expenditureThe inadequacies of this study can be summarized in three aspects:First, data in this paper are from urban pension system, and don’t involve the rural pension system; however, urban pension insurance is only a branch of pension system in China. Aging population and ability of pension payment could face more severe situation in rural China. Therefore, in fact this forecast on the ability of pension payment should be more optimistic compared with the actual situation in China.Second, in the program to improve the ability of pension payment, there are a number of factors which are worthy of depth study and research. Such as pension replacement rate, which is only be provided as and assumption in this article to build the model, whose rationality isn’t made any judgments.Third, regarding the pension system environment factors that limit the payment of pension, some of these were only qualitative analysis but not quantitative analysis, for example, businesses and personal integrity. Limited by the capacity of author, those were not included in the model for quantitative analysis. |
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