| Tourism industry has great potential for development and always been praised as the "rising economy" and "smokeless industry". The economic status of tourism industry in the national economy is increasingly important. The economic impact of it has been paid more and more attention by the government of various countries; tourism industry has become an important factor in promoting social and economic development.The potential for development and the socioeconomic effects of tourism industry has attracted the attention of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Tourism industry was identified as a new economic growth point along with the information industry and the real estate industry on the Central Economic Work Conference held in December1998. Local governments also generally attach importance to the development of tourism industry and give it great support.Domestic tourism industry is a group of enterprises which supply a variety of tangible and intangible products to meet the travel needs of Chinese nationals who travel within the country by virtue of the local tourism resources, tourism-related infrastructure and service facilities in order to gain economic benefits.Central Economic Work Conference held on12th-14th December2011, clearly put forward enlarging domestic demand, reasonably increasing the income of urban and rural residents, especially low-income people’s income, and promoting residents culture, tourism, health, pension, housekeeping and other services consumption. This indicates that the central government attaches great importance to the development of the tourism industry. Vigorously developing domestic tourism industry is in line with the needs of the current economic development situation and the principles and policies of the central government, and is propitious to meet the spiritual and material needs of the people, to expand domestic demand, regulate the economic structure and promote the economic growth, and also is conducive to stimulating the development of the national economy.Therefore, quantitative study of the development status of China’s domestic tourism industry, and econometric research the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth, not only have important theoretical value, but also have very important practical significance.On the basis of reviewing a large number of foreign and Chinese literatures, taking the domestic tourism industry as the research object, utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, based on data in related Yearbooks, by integrated use of VAR models, cointegration tests, VECM, the state space model and time-varying parameter models, this thesis in an interdisciplinary perspective lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth between1994and2010. Hope this study can provide the basis for decision making and theoretical support for the tourism administration department, academia, and tourism enterprises.This thesis consists of six chapters. First chapter is the introduction which expounded the background, the purpose, the object and the significance of the study, introduced the basic concepts of tourism, tourism industry, tourism seasonality and tourism multiplier. In the end this chapter provided the general tactic, research methods and the basic structure of this thesis.Chapter2quantitatively analyzed the development status of China’s domestic tourism industry between1994and2010using statistical methods. This chapter quantitatively analyzed the trend of the overall development of the domestic tourism industry, the rate of development of the domestic tourism industry, the percentage of the domestic tourism economy equivalent to GDP and the tertiary industry, and the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth. The conclusion of the analysis showed that the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth continued to increase, stimulating the growth of China’s national economy.This part analyzed the development of domestic tourism industry through index system analysis. The results showed that the growth of the total income of domestic tourism was mainly due to the increase of the total number of domestic tourists, the development of domestic tourism industry relied mainly on the scale of the total number of total tourism receipts and tourist reception, the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved. Chapter3worked over the seasonal characteristics of the domestic tourism industry, integrated using the Census X-12Method and the seasonal dummy variable model. The empirical results of these models were compared to discuss the effect of each model and verify the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry.The statistical properties of the statistic estimated by seasonal dummy variable model are significant. The coefficients of seasonal dummy variable model were significant not0, indicated that the domestic tourism industry had significant seasonal characteristics. The tourism seasonality index of the sequence data of the domestic tourism industry showed an attenuation trend.The seasonality index of the total income of domestic tourism, the seasonality index of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita, the seasonality index of the number of domestic tourists and the seasonality index of the rate of domestic tourism analyzed through above-mentioned models further verified the viewpoint which indicate the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved.Chapter4empirically researched the relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and China’s economic growth using a combination of Granger causality test based on VAR model, cointegration test, VECM and impulse response function analysis. The study showed existing long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth, the development of domestic tourism industry stimulated the economic growth of China and the economic growth in turn promoted the development of domestic tourism industry.Johansen cointegration test fully proved the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth. The estimated results of VECM indicated that the long-run equilibrium between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth impacted their relationship and the short-term dynamic change was insignificant. In the long term, the effect of the development of domestic tourism industry boosting China’s economic growth was greater than the economic growth on the development of domestic tourism industry. The coefficient of each ecm in every VECM was statistically significant, indicated that once deviated from its long-run equilibrium, the error correction mechanism will be automatically revised to the long-run equilibrium. The results of the impulse response function analysis quantitatively characterized the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth sequence. Excepting the response of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita to one standard deviation of economic growth innovation on the period of lag two was negative, the other impulse response function values were positive, indicated that one standard deviation of the domestic tourism sequence would impact the economic growth to change positively, and also the impact was significantly sustained effect.Chapter5estimated the marginal propensity to consumption of domestic tourism between1994and2010by time-varying parameter model based on the state space model, and then estimated the value of domestic tourism income multiplier.The results estimated by time-varying parameter model better reflected the seasonal changes in the tourism industry, the impact of unexpected events and economic fluctuations than the commonly used static analysis of the current domestic scholars. At the same time, the domestic tourism income multiplier estimated by time-varying parameter model showed a relatively stable and dynamic growth trend compared with the static analysis.Chapter6is the conclusion of the thesis. This chapter summarized the main conclusions of the paper and innovation, summarized the study revelations of the conclusions to provide theoretical supports and operable references for the relevant tourism authorities, researchers and tourism enterprises, and also put forward the direction for further research.The innovative points of this thesis lie in the following:First, strictly following the specification of the econometric approach, this thesis lucubrated the comprehensive relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry of China and the economic growth by integrated use of econometric methods; second, this thesis studied the contribution of domestic tourism industry’s development to the national economy dynamically through measuring the tourism income multiplier by the time-varying parameter model based on the state space model; the third, this thesis comprehensively researched the seasonal characteristics of China’s domestic tourism industry by building seasonal dummy variable models and decomposed the seasonal factors in domestic tourism time series, deepened and enriched the content of tourism seasonality research method. Utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, this thesis innovatively lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, by integrated use of econometric and other quantitative analysis methods, elicited some meaningful conclusions and inspiration.However, despite the author tried his best to keep improving in the research process, made every effort to strive for complete and perfect, there are still some inadequacies which need future researches to explore and improve. |
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