The Study On Risk Evaluation Of The Strategies In Sotfware Enterprise

Software industry is one of the most important part of information science field. Asthe capital and technology double-intensive industry, software enterprise connects talent,capital, and technology as a whole, taking intelligence and talent as main businessresources, taking knowledge and information as business carrier, taking innovation asmain business features. It has many features, such as high permeability, high investment,high added value, high risk and high effective return, and has became the importantsupporting foundation to innovating tradition, promoting economic structure andadjusting products structure. Software enterprise is facing tremendous challenges intoday’s hard global economy.Accompanied by the increasing competition, software company’s internal andexternal environment have become very complex and volatile, so any behavior ofenterprise development will involve in the trouble of uncertainty and risk. Avoiding riskis more important than getting supernormal profits, it has become the consensus of thebusiness community.Enterprise strategy risk management is indispensability to the development ofsoftware company. The key point of strategy risk management is to make a targeted riskassessment. If we can reasonably utilize the internal and external conditions, optimize theallocation of resources and make clear about the estimation of risk losses before thestrategy was decided, the decision of making enterprises strategy will be more scientificand reasonable, so as to keep the enterprise developing healthly.This paper is based on uncertainty theory combining the theory of enterprisestrategy, the risk management theory, the decision theory, and studies the strategic riskassessment in software industry by the method of membership grade analysis,hierarchical analysis, and fuzzy analysis, with a view to further enrich the theory systemresearch on strategy risk. In order to make the research work more comprehensive andinnovative, this paper illustrates the software enterprise strategic risk prediction and riskidentification, risk analysis, mainly carried out the following research step.First of all, starting with the features of the software enterprise, we made the risk analysis about the sources of software company, different stages of development ofenterprise strategy. What we mentioned the high profitability accompanied by the higherrisks in software industry, doesn’t mean the high profitability throughout the wholedevelopment process. In fact, as for the general rule of thumb, the income of softwarecompanies at all stages of the development is very uneven. In those early phases, theenterprise always goes with high risk, but the benefit is minimal. When the success iscoming, the high profitability also appears.Secondly, there are many factors to affect software enterprise strategic risk. In orderto make accurate and reasonable risk judgment, we need design a series of interrelatedindicators system from multiple levels and view. In this paper, software enterprisestrategy risk assessment indicators was designed and filtered by analyzine ways of expertquestionnaires, interviews, membership grade, and reserved2categories,13classes,total60three-level items of evaluation in the end.Each index’s function effect in the evaluation system is not the same, therefore weneed to make it clear about their weighted value, so that more comprehensively,objectively and truly reality is reflected. Then this paper is based on hierarchy analysismethod, comparison of the same layer, layer-by-layer-weighted hierarchical merging ofthe calculated weight values in each index system model. And on this basis, combinedwith fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the membership grade methods,construction of fuzzy analysis hierarchy process models, calculate the risks of softwareenterprises’ strategic situation, it is the foundation for risk combination analysis for thenext step.Strategy cannot be made simply basing on risk, nor on expected return as theconference starting point, but on the tradeoff between strategy risk, expected returns, riskcontrol costs, and other factors. This paper focuses on research on combinationframework of enterprise strategic risk assessment, combined with estimated costs andexpected benefits, risk appetite, risk tolerance and other indicators for portfolio analysis,building software enterprise strategy model based on risk factors, to find the core riskfactors of software enterprise. In the end, verify the analysis method’s feasibility andvalidity mentioned above by empirical study. It will provide guidance and recommendations to software enterprise’s strategy decision for the healthy developmentto software enterprises in China and reduce the probability of risk losing...