| Chongqing is the municipalities directly under the central government, which is a large city, big country, big area, mountain area and minority area, Since1997the each economic norms of Chongqing achieved great improvement, but the structure contradiction between urban and rural areas is so highlighted, the income gap between urban and rural areas is still large, and at the same time the city space expansion which brought by the economic development on rural resources has caused tremendous pressure. In2007, Chongqing officially became the national coordinating urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot area approved by the state. The establishment of urban and rural land use system is the one of contents in the urban and rural comprehensive reform. According to the problems of the Chongqing urban and rural land use, how to make full use idle rural land has become a very important reform question. In2008, the Ministry of land and resources supported Chongqing to explore some questions, such as how to use the funds of land consolidation, how to promote land consolidation development, how to transfer the constructive land between urban and rural, how to establish the market of urban and rural land transaction. In the same year Chongqing rural land exchange was established, marked the beginning of the land ticket transaction system. As a system innovation in land management, the land ticket transaction system was not only an innovation system in land use, but also a way of city to a rural zone in order to promote agro. No single system could solve every problem and risk, so many problems and risks in the land ticket transaction system must be revealed. Based on this, this thesis researched how to prevent the problem and risk in the land ticket transaction system. In the period of industrialization and urbanism in western developed country, some problems were revealed, such as how to protect farmland effectively, public space, with historical and cultural value and economic value of the areas which had special natural landscape and other problems. How to solve the above problems mainly from the land development rights abroad, the emphasis of the study mainly from land development right theory, land ownership rights, market structure and operational. The system of risk prevention research is still in its initial stage, and the research on the risks and prevention in the land ticket transaction system is nearly blank strip. So this thesis researched the risks in the land ticket transaction system, the thinking of research is that diagnosed risks in the land ticket transaction system firstly, identified the risks in the land ticket transaction system secondly, assessed the risks in the land ticket transaction system thirdly, rendered advice according to the risk analysis in the land ticket transaction fourthly, built up the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system finally. And the thesis researched the system risks in the land ticket transaction system itself, rather than the risks that influenced by the practical operation or people behavior, revealed the risk sources and operation mechanism, assessed the risk value and importance of the risk, explored the paths and methods to prevent the risk, designed the risk prevention system and putted forward policy suggestions. The research results will perfect the ticket transaction system and provide the important theory and the practical significance.1. To evaluate the land ticket transaction system running efficiency and deficiencyThe land ticket transaction system had achieved obvious social, economic, ecological benefit. One is the innovation of land replacement model between rural collective construction land and urban construction land, and set up a unified urban and rural land market. Two is to manifest the value of rural land, to increase income and property for farmers and to optimize the rural land space layout; Three is that land reclamation first and then expropriation of the land to replace firstly expropriating the land and then land reclamation, not only helped to supply farmland76600mus, but also to maintain32560000acres of farmland quantity in Chongqing. Generally, the operating of the land ticket transaction system has played a tremendous role in promoting, made a significant contribution. Although the ticket system has obtained certain result, but with any institutional innovation, there are still some deficiencies in the practice, needed to gradually improve. A preliminary exploration of the land ticket system is lack of some of the upper law basis; two is that the price formation mechanism theories need to be explored; three is that the accrual mechanism still needs further improvement. In the land ticket transaction system some deficiencies were exposed, which influenced the land ticket transaction system’s normal operation and development on certain level. So we should research these risks, and establish the risk prevention control system in the land ticket transaction system.2. To qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system riskFrom risk identification meaning, content and principle, using the brainstorming, Delphi method and the DSP system risk technology system, we qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk. The points of view were just that the problems affected on land ticket transaction system were consistent in the three methods. There are five risk factors for land tickets system: farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas and the risk of protecting the interests of farmers. Three methods in breadth and depth are different. Brainstormings predict and analyze the land ticket transaction system risk by subjective analysis. It can’t analyze some risks that not easy to be detected. Delphi method can identify the risks that not easy to be detected, but because the experts’time is so limited, the detected risks are not comprehensive. DSP system risk of technology system was applied on the system risk, which could analyze the system risks comprehensively and systematically. There were16risk points, the balance of cultivated land effect, arable land dynamic balance effect, national land management influence, the influence of amount of newly increased construction land, the urban and rural construction land use spatial regulation, the city land supply, real estate market monopoly, increased costs push construction land high prices, the real estate market supply increases, the market does not fully consider the rural development needs, to produce their own development caused negative effects, is not conducive to the protection of farmers’land use of small towns, the reclamation of subject status, to promote rural land social security function need further considered, farmer’rights and interests are not guaranteed in the land tickets landing area and fall in compensation for land expropriation and requisition rationality is worth considering. The results that qualitatively identified by risk identification methods can supply the study of the risk points.3. To quantitatively identify the land ticket transaction system riskUsing analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analysis method and comprehensive evaluation method, the thesis quantitatively assess the risks in the land ticket transaction system. According to the results of the risk assessment, the land ticket transaction system integrated risk value was0.38, and contrasted with the risk grade table, the risk to a lesser extent, the risk is still in a controllable state. In accordance with the possibility of risk ranking,5risks can be ranked as:the risk of protecting the interests of farmers, farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas, the risk values were0.171,0.0827,0.0633,0.036and0.0226. According to the risk value, the following five risks are greater: the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the risk that does not fully reflect the dominant position of reclamation of farmers, the risk of dynamic balance of total arable land, the risk that does not fully guarantee farmers’rights and interests in land tickets to landing areas, and the impact risk of national planning indicators. For further analysis the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the thesis take Beibei as an example. The results showed that the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer is the biggest negative impact on the risk of protecting the interests of farmers.And the thesis put forward to the point of view that it’s very necessary to respect the wishes of farmers and establish a scientific and reasonable income distribution mechanism and to actively explore new effective social security system.4. To put forward to ticket trading system risk prevention strategyAccording to the5major risks degree of influence, the thesis put forward the risk prevention strategy. Such as " establish the main body position of the peasants "," explore reasonable income distribution mechanism of compensation "," perfect the land ticket price supervision mechanism "," strengthen reclamation design and acceptance link "," develop Farmland Grade conversion approach"," reasonable control of annual ticket transaction scale "," build ticket+plan index "," reasonable package "," overall allocation of construction land index "," reasonable subdivision to ticket index "," strengthen rural sustainable development ability’5. To design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system From risk management and systems engineering, in order to further prevent the risks on the land ticket transaction system, improve the land ticket transaction system; design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system of risk prevention system mainly includes organization system, a monitoring system and an assessment system.6. To put forward some suggestions that can ensure the land ticket transaction system against system risksIn order to ensure the land ticket transaction risk prevention system run effectively, put forward some suggestions such as " attention to the base works of the land ticket transaction system "," perfect the land ticket transaction management mechanism "," carry out the operation of key technology research"" strengthen land ticket transaction system and current related system convergence "," building the land ticket transaction transaction information system ".Given all that, this thesis meet the required, brush aside system innovation, legal nature, significance analysis of the land ticket transaction system, set out from system level, research the potential or itself risk in the land ticket transaction system, rather than the risks that the system practical operation or operation effected by people behavior effect lead to the risk. It is the first time this kind of the land ticket transaction system risk research has been studied. So the research has creative value. The risk appraisal, risk identification and risk prevention as a whole, the study is very systematic and structural. Qualitative analysis, quantitative evaluation of Chongqing land exchange in the land ticket transaction risk and constructing the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system, which is benefit for the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system is a new thing; system construction is a long process in practice. At present, the risk prevention doesn’t prevent the emergence of new problems. Now this thesis has established the model, but the factors in the land ticket transaction system will change. So we need further on this foundation to improve and expand. |
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