| Trade balance is one of important topics for discussion in international economy. Chinese trade surplus is hotspot topic always concerned by academe and industry. Study the structure、effects and sustainability of trade surplus in china, explore the law of evolution of trade surplus, a certain extent, enriched the theory of international trade, these is important theoretical significance, can provide scientific suggestions of trade policy、foreign exchange、foreign capital、industry、exchange rate.In this paper, the combination of methods of the empirical analysis and normative analysis、qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and comparative method are used.Carry out an objective description of the development、characteristic and characteristics of China’s trade surplus by empirical analysis, according to the normative analysis, found out the problems in the development of China’s trade surplus, then make rational decisions, and analyze their causes, and then put forward the scientific suggestions; analyze the history of Germany、Japan and other national trade development、the reasons of trade surplus、structure of trade surplus and dealing with trade surplus, and compared with China’s trade surplus; analyze the effect of China’s trade surplus on economic growth and its impact factors through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The main content of this paper is as follows:The first chapter, Introduction. Including background and significance of this research、Literature survey Contents and frame of this research、method of this research Contents and frame of this research、method of this research、the contribution and research prospects of this dissertation.Chapter2, international trade theory. First of all, introduce surplus trade theory effects on economic growth; introduce surplus trade theory and Savings&Investment theory in section Ⅱ; introduce intertemporal Approaches to the current account in section Ⅲ; introduce theory of international industrial transfer in section Ⅴ; at last introduce Structural analysis and elasticity approach.Chapter3, the structure of China’s trade surplus. First of all, introduce the background of China’s trade surplus; analyze the regional structure of China’s trade surplus in section Ⅱ; analyze the commodity structure of China’s trade surplus in section Ⅲ; analyze the operating economic entity of the goods of China’s trade surplus in section Ⅳ; analyze the patterns of China’s trade surplus in section Ⅴ; at last it is a summary of this chapter.Chapter4, empirical Analysis of effect factors on China’s trade surplus and effects of China’s trade surplus. First of all,empirical Analysis of effect factors on China’s trade surplus; Second, effects of China’s trade surplus; at last it is a summary of this chapter.Chapter5, An Empirical Analysis of the sustainability of China’s trade surplus. First, a brief introduction to the stylized facts of relations of China’s import and export; Secondly, the establishment of a theoretical model; thirdly, to measure the sustainability of China’s trade surplus; at last it is a summary of this chapter.Chapter6, International Comparison of China’s foreign trade surplus. First, measure the international comparison of balance of trade surplus; section Ⅱ, measure the international comparison of trade imbalance degree; section Ⅲ, measure the international comparison of structure of trade surplus; measure international comparison of the reasons of trade surplus in section Ⅳ; Section Ⅴ, measure the international comparison of dealing with trade surplus; at last it is a summary of this chapter.Chapter7, the main conclusions and policy suggestions. A simple summary of the full text and Provides the corresponding policy implications and suggestions.The main conclusions of this dissertation:First, China’s trade surplus characteristics. China’s main sources of trade Surplus are Hong Kong of China、the United Statesand the European Union, the surplus of domestic geographic distribution concentrated in the eastern areas; China’s export structure has been greatly optimized, converted from labor-intensive exports tocapital-and technology-intensive products export-oriented. From the value chain, value chain, our country still engaged in international trade by the labor, the nature of China’s labor-intensive elements has not changed; FDI is the main source of China’s foreign trade surplus; processing trade is the main trade patterns of China’s trade surplus; china’s trade surplus promote economic growth; appreciation of the renminbi promoted growth of china’s trade surplus.Second, effect factors on China’s trade surplus, explores the relationship among real effective exchange rate of RMB、trade balance、domestic income and from foreign incomes by using the analysis method of cointegratio、Granger causality test,etc. Conclusion:real effective exchange rate of RMB、domestic income、foreign incomes have favorable impact on trade balance, the impact of real effective exchange rate of RMB on trade balance is biggest. After exchange reform in2005, in condition of appreciation of treal effective exchange rate of RMB,chinese trade surplus becomed big, it is unreasonable that America,etc.ask for appreciation of treal effective exchange rate of RMB to improve their trade balance. explores the relationship between China’s participation in international vertical specialization and China’s trade surplus, Conclusion: China’s participation in international vertical specialization has favorable impact on trade balance.Thirdly, effects of China’s trade surplus. Conclusion: China’s trade surplus and RMB real effective exchange rate、China’s trade surplus and China’s FDI、 China’s trade surplus and CPI、China’s trade surplus and the average wage of urban workers in China、 China’s trade surplus and economic growth in china all have cointegration relationships, China’s trade surplus effects on RMB real effective exchange rate、 China’s FDI、 CPI、 the average wage of urban workers in China、 economic growth.Fourthly, the of sustainability of China’s trade surplus is weak. Firstly, the relationship of long-run equilibrium of China’s import and export contains intercept, the slope of the items have undergone changes by the intertemporal analysis of the current account and test based on the structure of the endogenous mutant, China’s trade surplus has sustainability, indicating that the export trade was influenced by the foreign exchange foreign trade system reform and accession to the WTO、 the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in2008. Secondly, the sustainability of the trade surplus is a weak sustainability, rather than strong sustainability, exports are vulnerable to influenced by foreign economic environment. Exports are mainly constrained by the import and export of long-run equilibrium relationship, its deviation from equilibrium will be corrected next month to ensure that the import and export relationships do not significantly deviate from the equilibrium, export enterprises are rational, the export will automatically be adjusted to maximize intertemporal profit.Fifth, by analyzing the history of the development of trade, the trade surplus, the degree of trade imbalance and trade surplus in Japan、 Germany with China’s trade surplus were compared, Conclusion:Compared with Japan and Germany, from the trade surplus with the duration, the average annual favorable balance number of the year more than100billion U.S. dollars, China is not large; the number of degree of trade imbalance-year average、 over10%, the degree of China’s trade imbalance is not high; but there are a small share of capital technology-intensive products exports accounting for exports、our country still engaged in international trade by the labor, the nature of China’s labor-intensive elements has not changed、the small of trading profit and the single structure of export commodities. In conclusion, Germany’s trade surplus quality is number one, Japan’s is number two, China’s is worst; based on the analysis of the causes of a surplus, the trade surplus has certain universality in the process of industrialization, the enterprise technology innovation, competition strategy of enterprises and government support effect on the surplus produce. China’s enterprises in foreign trade use price war, lack of strategy, technical innovation is insufficient, the government also lacks to the foreign trade system and scientific promotion system.At last, China’s trade surplus is a normal phenomenon. From the international experience, each of economy in its industrialization stage had the trade surplus. Take into account China’s current international division of labor、 the stage of industrialization and the main sources of the trade surplus, China’s foreign trade surplus is a normal phenomenon.Innovation of this paper has three points:First, take the quantitative analysis of endogenous structural mutation, take monthly data samples for analysis in order to get more accurately the mutation point in time than the use of annual data samples, at last the structure of sustainability divided into strong sustainable and weak sustainability. Second,Industrial finished subdivided into chemical products and related products, manufactured goods classified by raw materials, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles to get a clearer economic growth factors; Third, in comparison China’s foreign trade surplus with Japan and Germany, through the analysis of the history of the development of these countries trade, the trade surplus reasons, constitution and handling and comparison with China’s trade surplus, the paper proposes policy options to solve China’s foreign trade surplus, adjustment and matching scheme, the solution has a comprehensive and practical significance.The research prospects of this dissertation has two points:First, this paper has not an estimation the reasonable scope of trade surplus; second, from the perspective of a new international production division of to explain the essence of China’s trade surplus remains to be deepened further. |
PDF Full Text Request