Research On Fluctuation And Prediction Of Miscellaneous Grain Crops Prices In China

Miscellaneous grain crops are beneficial to meet the healthy and diversified dietary needs of our residents.They are also an important means for destocking of staple foods,diversifying the structure of food supply,and ensuring food security.Miscellaneous grain crops are of great significance for optimizing China's agricultural production structure and regional distribution,developing China's rural industries,and promoting farmers' income.In recent years,the price of miscellaneous grain crops has fluctuated dramatically,which has brought great losses to growers,processors,suppliers of production factors and consumers,and has a relatively negative impact on promoting farmers' income and stabilizing the agricultural market.Therefore,research on the price fluctuation of China's miscellaneous grain crops,explore the law of price fluctuations,find ways to stabilize the price fluctuation,will balance the production and sales of miscellaneous grain crops,stabilize the market of agricultural products,and broaden the channels for farmers to increase income in miscellaneous grain crops producing areas,and accelerate the development of rural characteristic industries.Based on the study of the production status,regional layout,import and export trade and domestic consumption of China's miscellaneous grain crops,this paper uses the Census X12 seasonal adjustment,H-P filter econometric model,GARCH model and TGARCH model to study the price fluctuation law of mung bean and azuki bean in China's miscellaneous grain crops varieties.Then,the research introduced the GM(1,1)model and the ARIMA-GARCH model to predict the price of mung bean and azuki bean,and compared the prediction effects of the two models to select the optimal model.Finally,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for stabilizing China's miscellaneous grain crops market and promoting the healthy development of China's miscellaneous grain crops industry.Through the research,the main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the price of mung bean and adzuki bean in China shows a trend of fluctuation and rise,and the price fluctuation is uncertain.The price fluctuations of mung bean and red bean in China have obvious seasonality,and gradually decrease with the influence of seasonal changes over time.In 2009-2010,the irregular components of price fluctuations of mung bean and adzuki bean were more prominent.The price fluctuations of mung bean and adzuki bean in China are cyclical,but the time span of cyclical fluctuation is unstable.Secondly,there are clustering characteristics of mung bean price and adzuki bean price fluctuation.Mung bean and adzuki bean price fluctuations are all asymmetric,but the asymmetry of adzuki bean price fluctuation is not significant.Thirdly,after testing the forecasting effect of the two forecasting models,it is determined that ARIMA-GARCH model is better than GM(1,1)model in choosing mung bean and adzuki bean price forecasting models,that is,ARIMA-GARCH model can better provide technical support for the price forecasting of miscellaneous grain crops.Fourth,five suggestions have put forward in the end such as strengthen the study on the price fluctuation law of miscellaneous grain crops,guide the healthy development of miscellaneous grain crops industry,strengthen the construction of miscellaneous grain crops information service platform,establish miscellaneous grain crops price forecasting system,use financial instruments to adjust the price fluctuations of miscellaneous grain crops in order to stable miscellaneous grain crops market and promote healthy development of miscellaneous grain crops industry.