Under The Modern Growth Theory Angle Of View Of China's Economic Growth Dynamics Research

Modern growth theory (Solow model, Ramsey model and endogenous growth theory)describes the driving forces and path of economic growth, the economic growth of humanhistory and modern western countries, although it still has some drawbacks, it has laid agood foundation for next research. Existing theoretical literatures mainly stem from twoaspects: mathematical models and measurement methods, a lot of meaningful results arefounded. If we consider the reality of economic growth, we can discover existing westernliteratures often use econometrics to engaged in the research of reality, and in a wayeconometric methods almost replace the traditional political economics. We believe thatthe traditional methods of political economics are indispensable, if we blindly depended onthe model and measurement methods, it is hard to find some important links and toresearch economy under the conditions of social changes. But the economic developmentof most countries’ reality tells us that economic growth must rely on certain socialconditions, the economic growth the results page will affect social development, and theimpression will be subtle impacts on some model parameters. As a result, the author triesto combine modern growth theory with the method of political economics to deepen theresearch in theory and practice, and hopes to lay a preliminary foundation for futureresearches.Over the past30years,China’s economy make great developments, GDP per capitain2012has exceeded the$6000, considering the population size of China, the economicdevelopment results and industrial scales, it is almost hard to find a precedent in thehistory of the world. But we must realize that with the improvement of the level of humancapital and technology, the threshold of economic modernization also increaseaccordingly, old economic modernization level by today’s standards does not accord withthe requirement of today’s economic modernization, which requires Chinese economy inthe next decade continues with a high speed to develop, then China can catch up with thedeveloped countries.Through the analysis of theory and practice, we found that in the modern society, theeconomic growth needs certain social conditions. As endogenous growth theory points out,in the long run, the ultimate decisive forces of economic growth are the promotion ofscientific and technological innovation and human capital, especially after theindustrialization society. Industrialized productions need a series of social conditions, ifsociety pushed industrialization without these conditions, like many developing countries, we will see the national economic stagnation and even backwards. In developed countries,economic growth is a more common phenomenon, except in a short-term recessionphase of the whole cyclical fluctuations. In ordinary years the western countries canalways obtain certain economic growth rates, although compared with some developingcountries, the rate is lower, but developed countries is not easier to fall in long-termstagnation than developing countries.Compared with developing countries, developed countries have a relatively stableeconomic growth, economic growth mainly comes from the innovation of science andtechnology and the improvement of human capital endowments. On this basis, somebenefit to economic development of the secondary advantages, such as education,technical communication and diffusion, industrial transfer and the reshaping, these factorsmake the developed countries always have a certain economic vitality. Based on theresearch of the developed countries, economic development, we found that theseadvantages of the developed countries ensure their economic technology levelsunceasing enhancement, which is the cause of the economic growth in westerndeveloped countries. In the paper this mechanism to ensure economic development iscalled the steady state growth mechanism, the main purpose of this paper is to explorehow to establish steady growth mechanism in China, and we now how far is it from such amechanism.In this paper, chapter1is introduction. In this chapter, the author gives the presentsituations and difficulties of China’s economic development, and describes the process ofdevelopment of economic growth theory, and why choose modern economic growththeory as the basic research tools. This chapter also reviews the course ofindustrialization in the developed countries and developing countries, and points out thateconomic growth becomes a relatively stable phenomenon only in the developedcountries. Thus China must learn from developed countries, then she has the stablegrowth momentum to realize steady economic growth, but this point is the deficiency ofChina’s economic development at present.Chapter2introduces modern growth theory in detail, including the original Solowmodel, Ramsey model and endogenous growth theory development course is introduced.Endogenous growth theory is based on Romer,Lucas,Barrow, and several classicliteratures, these classical literatures give the basic framework of endogenous growththeory and methods of other literatures, basically all other articles were seen as the promotion and applications. On the basis of the introduction, the author explores themechanisms of economic growth in western society. In this paper, the author calls it themechanism for the steady state growth mechanism.Based on Lucas(1988), chapter3combines growth theory with political economics,sociology methods to systematically study the role of human capital on economic growth,as well as the human capital endowment ascension for developed countries and theimpacts of economic growth in developing countries from the Angle of growth theory to thestudy of the system, and obtains some important properties of human capital, points outthat human capital endowment ascent for a country’s economic growth and the importantrole of establishing steady growth mechanism. On this basis, this chapter studies thecurrent situations of human capital endowments, lack of human capital endowment inChina has carried on the certain depth of the discussion, and put forward thecountermeasures of improving, and that the endowment of human capital can not onlybecome China’s further economic growth, the process of ascension have created demanditself can promote economic growth.Chapter4centers on the roles of science and technology innovation for economicgrowth, and how to promote China’s scientific and technological innovation capability,enhance China’s development momentum. This chapter firstly presents the public goodsnature of science and technology, points out that science and technology belong toparticular public products, especially in basic science, so we need the government ratherthan private profit as a public product provided to society. This chapter also studies theeconomic growth of the fundamental importance of science and technology innovation,analyzes the foreign related case, points out that in the industrial era of transformationthe difficulties China’s economic and social development faced is Chinese backwardlevels in science and technology. In the final analysis of the current situation of Chinascience and technology level, for the future development of the role of economicdevelopment and driving force, puts forward some countermeasures to improve.Chapter5is essential to the formation of steady growth mechanism which is studiedfrom several aspects: technological learning and digesting, reshape and transfer ofindustrial structure, the improvement of the education system. These respects are veryimportant to the formation of steady growth mechanism, human capital endowments ofascension and the improvement of the science and technology innovation ability and it isthrough these aspects. Relative to the human capital and technological innovation ability, the human capital levels and the innovation ability of science and technology wereimproved more significantly than ever, many developing countries have failed to cross the"middle-income trap". For China at this stage, if you want to completely rely on scientificand technological innovation to promote economic growth, you will find many difficulties,because China has obvious drawbacks in these secondary advantages, and the processin which these drawbacks make up is the one that steady economic growth mechanismforms.Chapter6makes a summary to this research. Due to China’s continued economicgrowth and improvement of the strength of science and technology, China is walking outthe transition period towards the direction of establishing steady growth mechanism. If thegovernment role is appropriate, this process will play a major role in economicdevelopment, and the steady state growth mechanism will also be the natural result of thisprocess. With the completion of this process, China will become a country with a strongcreative ability. China’s economic growth will eventually improve scientific andtechnological innovation and human capital endowments.In essence, the process of China’s economic growth is one of the socialtransformation of China’s external and characterization, and because China in the20thcentury experienced a long period of transition, accompanied by conflict and long periodof economic depression. Compared with the east of Japan and the development of the"Asian tigers" performance, it is easy to make people have doubts and fears on China’seconomic growth. But this view ignores the influence of the social conditions for economicdevelopments during this period. China is going through gradually transition fromtraditional centralized empire to modern countries. China will gradually complete thistransition in the next20years, and provides a new giant country in transition anddevelopment of important cases for the relevant economic theory and social theory.