| Climate change has been one of the globally common issues, which attracts concerns of the whole international community. To address climate change and control GHG emission towards a green and low carbondevelopment mode is the pursuit of all nations. Carbon emission trading is one of the most effective market-based mechanisms to reduce CO2emission,which has already been introduced by several regiions and countries. In China, seven provinces and cities are selected as the carbon emission trading pilots. Carbon emission trading will firstly be carried out within each pilot. A nationwide carbon maket is expected to be established during the13th Five-Year-Plan Period. Generation permits substitution is a unique market-based mechanism in China, which is already proven to be effective in conserving energy and reducing emission in the power sector. It is also positive in promoting the close down of small scale generators. Against this background, this thesis explores the impact of carbon emission trading on generation permits subsituttion in China.The allocation and pricing of the initial carbon emission allowance are key issues in carbon emission trading mechanism. In terms of emission allowance allocation, four models are established, which are based on installed capacity, annual generation amount, reference history emission and emission intensity of unit generation respectively. A comprehensive allocation model is then established, offering different weight to the above allocation models, and a comparison of the applicability is also made. Further, an optimization model is established, with the dual objectives of maximizing the social benefit and minimizing the social inequity, to optimize the allocation outcomes.In terms of pricing of the allowances, models for the pricing methods of primary market and secondary market are established. In terms of pricing in primary market, model I based on Shadow Price is established to calculate the price under the fixed-price allocation mode. Model II based on Nash Equilibrium is established to calculate the price under auction allocation mode. A bidding model based on win-win strategy is established to obtain the pricing method for the market participant in the secondary market. As financial derivatives such as carbon option and carbon future becomes the principal product in the international carbon market, the applicability of the classic Black-Scholes model to the pricing of carbon option is also examined.Dual emphasis is laid on the impact of carbon emissiontrading on generation permits substituation. Optimization models based on equal utility efficiency, minimum coal sonsumption, minimum carbon emission, least generation cost, least total cost are established to analyze and evaluate the result of generation permit substitution with different allowance allocation. In terms of the effect of different carbon on generation permit substitution, an analysis on the market power in the nationwide carbon market is made first, on which base optimization models are established to explore the overall efficiency with different carbon prices. The conclusion is higher carbon price could facilitate generation permit substitution between units with different generation capacity, which enlarged the overall economic efficiency and effectiveness.A comprehensive evaluation on the modes of generation permit substitution is made at the end of the thesis. Evaluation mode based on Multi-attribute Intelligent Grey Target Decision and Rough, Set Theory is established. It shows that to set up one regional transaction platform, set limitations to the transferee not the transferor, adopt centralized transaction with the High-Low match bidding mode, can achieve the optimal efficacy and benefit. |
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