Research On Optimization Model Of Generation Expansion Planning In Low-carbon Economy With The Complementary Mode Of RPS And FIT

Currently,resource shortages and environmental pollution have become the two main global problems that hinder human development and social progress.These problems have caused abnormal climate changes,global warming and other issues,and have been widely concerned by the international community.Following China's ‘Reform and Opening Up' program,which refers to the economic reforms being implemented in the country,it has faced a gradual upward trend in CO2 emissions.According to the International Energy Agency(2009),China overtook the US in 2007 as the world's largest producer of CO2 emissions.During the 2015 Paris United Nations Climate Change Conference,Chinese government announced that the country would decrease its CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product(GDP)by 60%-65% between 2005 and 2030.China also pledged to peak CO2 emissions by around 2030 and try to achieve it as soon as possible.That means that how to optimize the energy structures with the constraints of carbon emission has become the serious problem in China's industrial construction process.Compared with other sectors,the electric power sector,whose main fuel is coal,is one of main sectors for the Chinese CO2 emissions.Therefore,the electric power sector has become the main sector for the energy structure optimization.China's renewable energy resources are rich,and China would endeavor to develop the renewable energy.Moreover,renewable energy will become the main part in the Chinese energy structure.To optimize the coal-based energy structure in China's electric power sector,the national energy sector of China studied ‘Renewable energy power generation quota assessment approach' since 2012.However,after reformation of power system in 2002 and 2015,restructure of the electric power sector is carried out,and the previous renewable energy policies have been unable to meet the development requirements at the present stage.There are many challenges and troubles while developing renewable energy.Therefore,it is very important for the Chinese government to seek a renewable energy incentive policy which is suitable for the national conditions.The main study in this paper is detailed as follow:(1)This paper analyses the regional energy consumption and regional CO2 emissions in China's electric power sector,and also studies China's power supply situation.This paper builds the decomposition model of CO2 emissions by using LMDI methodology.The changes in CO2 emissions from thermal electricity generation are decomposed into energy structure effect,intensity effect,energy efficiency effect,economic development effect and population effect.According to the LMDI results,this paper analyses the CO2 emissions and energy consumption in the six regional grids.This paper also predicts the energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the six regional grids.(2)This paper analyses the energy and exergy efficiencies of China's thermal power sector.According to the analysis,this study improves the calculation approach for the energy efficiency of China's electric power sector.This paper also improves the accuracy of energy efficiency calculation.In this paper,an analysis of energy and exergy efficiencies of the thermal power sector in China was conducted.Compared with the results of energy analysis and exergy analysis,we find that the energy efficiency is much higher than the exergy efficiency because the energy analysis did not consider the irreversibility.It means that there exists considerable space to improve the energy efficiency in China's thermal power sector.(3)This paper analyses the Renewable portfolio standard(RPS)and Feed-in tariff(FIT)which are the most popular renewable energy policies in the world.According to the analysis results,this paper provides a renewable energy incentive policy which is suitable for the national conditions.First,this paper builds an optimization model of generation expansion planning based on the RPS and an optimization model of generation expansion planning based on the FIT,respectively.The optimization model of generation expansion planning based on RPS considers the impacts of renewable energy quota and tradable green certificates mechanism on electricity power sector.The optimization model of generation expansion planning based on FIT considers the impacts of carbon emissions trading on electricity power sector,and the fixed price was used in this model.Second,we establish the profit functions of RPS and FIT policies,and achieve the optimal input and the quantity of the energies under RPS and FIT.We compare their different effects on policy-making,input,quantity of two kinds of energy and electricity price.According to the results of analysis,we find that RPS and FIT have their own advantages and disadvantages.The results show that RPS is more efficient than FIT to reduce traditional energy and CO2 emissions.And FIT is more efficient than RPS to improve the renewable energy development and the motivation of generation company.Third,in order to compensate the disadvantages of RPS and FIT policies,this paper establishes the optimization model of generation expansion planning with the complementary mode of RPS and FIT.In the complementary mode,the price of renewable energy electricity is determined by FIT policy.This model also considers the constraints of RPS policy on generation company.This paper analyses the problems of the implementation of the complementary mode,and provides some reasonable suggestions for future research.