Research On The Scale Calculation And Driving Factors Of Embodied Energy In Chinese Trade

Since the end of the twentieth century, along with the emergence of a series ofchanges in the Earth’s climate characteristics associated with global warming, rising sealevels, ecosystem deterioration, energy and environmental issues have become the focusof global attention. In this context, as a rising world power, China’s energy demand andenvironmental pollution problems become a global concern, especially the developedcountries who feel the threat, but also as an excuse to put forward "China energy threat"and "China climate threat", accusing China depends on the consumption of the world’senergy resources to sustain its own economic growth, but also caused hugeenvironmental pollution. About the estimates of energy consumption and pollutionemissions, many foreign scholars, especially the relevant agencies in developed countries,are based on the production side. But with China in the consolidation of the so-called"world factory" status in the world, many developed countries have been transferred thehigh energy-consuming industries to developing countries, so the current indicator in acountry based on the production side, such as historical emissions, total emissions andper capita emissions were not enough to make an accurate explanation, but has becomean excuse for developed countries accused of China’s high energy consumption and highpollution. Energy consumption in China’s economic operation, is attached to a largenumber of products and services through international trade to achieve cross-regionalexternal flow, eventually leading to the international transfer of energy consumption. Asa developing trade power, the continuous expansion of the scale of trade showed that theChinese energy consumption is exported in the form of products exported. Therefore, theTrade-embodied Energy research based on the consumer side, on the one hand be able tolet the world understand the nature of China’s energy consumption more accurately andobjectively; on the other hand, it can also provide practical trade policy options for Chinato complete the international emission reduction targets, achieve the policytransformation of green trade and long-term sustainable economic development. Inpractical terms, this paper is mainly consist of several part of contents:First, by establishing the input-output model based on the problems of China’s trade-embodied energy, estimate the scale of China’s trade-embodied energy in all rangedepended on building five dimensions accounting indicators including exporttrade-embodied energy, import trade-embodied energy, the maximum net trade-embodiedenergy, the minimum net trade-embodied energy and the net trade-embodied energy. Theresults showed that: the scale of China’s export and import trade-embodied energyincreased extremely rapidly, the average annual growth rate of them were all around20%;the lower limit of trade-embodied energy shows that the trade-embodied energy wasbasically at the level of import and export balance before2005, and has been the obvioustrade-embodied energy net exporter since2005; the upper limit trade-embodied energyfor Japan as a source of imports in China’s trade, China is a significant net exporter oftrade-embodied energy, and the net scale of export growth rapid; trade-embodied energyestimated based on the eight input-output tables and six countries or regions shows thatChina’s foreign trade-embodied energy in a net exporter state for a long time, and moreincreased rapidly, trade-embodied energy estimated in2000is0.59million tons ofstandard coal,5.52million tons of standard coal to2011, an increase of8times, theaverage annual growth rate of nearly30%. Compared with the scale of trade in energyproducts, we found that the net export value of China’s trade-embodied energy washigher than the net imports of energy products except2009and2010.Overall, China’sdomestic energy consumption transfered through trade is rising, behind the scale offoreign trade continued to increase is the ecological deficit of trade.Second, by the input and output structure decomposition model（I-O SDA）,analyzethe driving factors influencing the transfer energy consumption of our country dependedon the comparative analysis of scale effect, structure effect and technology effect,provide advantageous guidance basis in reducing energy consumption, carbon emissionsand environmental pollution. Analysis results show that on the surface, both export andimport trade-embodied energy, trade scale factors are the main positive driving factor, theaverage contribution rate was150%, and the changes of energy consumption intensitycan restrain the international transfer of energy consumption. Compared with the tradescale and technical factors, model shows that the absolute value of driving action of tradestructure factors are small, but this does not mean that there is no link between tradestructure and trade-embodied energy. This phenomenon instead showed precisely, the long-standing structure of import and export trade in our country have not been afundamental shift, on the basis of low efficiency structure of export trade, the trade scalewas responsible for the net export scale of trade-embodied energy continues to expand.Third, based on the model of TEKC attempts to explore the movement of china’strade-embodied energy, at least in theory, the net export status of china’s trade-embodiedenergy will not change in ten years and the actual situation may last longer. In today’sgrowing pressure of resources and environment at home and abroad, the urgency of thetransformation of green trade policy has been underscored. According to the analysis ofthe driving factors, in view of the trade structure which is the fundamental factors,combined with the actual situation of the economic development of our country, thetransformation project of green trade policy combining long term with short term shouldbe implemented. In short term, in order to complete the12th and13th Five-Year Plan, thetrade product structure should have a short-term transverse correction using a variety oftariff adjustment, revise product environmental standards, making market access standard,environmental and investment risk control, etc. In long term, the trade structuraladjustments must be turned from the transverse adjustments to vertical extension, get amore reasonable position in the global industrial chain. In order to turn to the verticalextension of industry chain, China’s role in globalization need reasonable position, at thesame time, need to foster a healthy domestic market for vertical extension of industrychain...