Research On Carbon Embodied And Its Influencing Factors Of China’s Paper Export

The problem of global climate change, with main characteristics of climate warming, is generally concerned by international community. Carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gas emission reduction is an effective way to mitigate climate change. With the development of economy, China which as one of world’s largest CO2 gas emitter, is claimed to undertake responsibility for energy conservation and emission reduction by developed countries. To ease the global greenhouse gas emission, Chinese government promised that carbon emission per unit of GDP in 2020 would be 40-45% less than them in 2005. Rapid growth of China’s CO2 emission is not only because of large domestic consumption demand, but also rapid development of export trade. At the same time, the Europe, US and Japan those developed countries are planning to implement "carbon tariffs" policy to the imported carbon products. Facing international pressure, we need to analyze quantitatively export trade of paper industry which has the characteristics of high energy-consuming and high pollution, about evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission, which not only benefits to measures vividly total carbon emissions of Chinese paper industry, for strengthening Chinese paper industry to promote the awareness of energy utilization efficiency and carbon emissions efficiency, but also benefits to play the role of the paper industry export trade to energy conservation and emissions reduction from the view of policy, for coping with low-carbon competition under the low-carbon economy era and ensuring that the paper industry export trade develops sustained and healthy.Firstly, Based on the UN Comtrade Database and World Input-Output Database, we introduce the imports, exports and the variation trend of the international trade competitiveness. Secondly, we use non-competitive input-output table of World Input-Output Database from 1995 to 2009 by 40 countries and industry carbon emissions of environmental account database to research the carbon emission intensity and trade carbon embodied its development trend in Chinese paper industry. Thirdly, using the method of structure decomposition, we decompose trade carbon embodied of paper industry into three key influence factors from technology, structure and scale benefits, and research its contribution degree and tendency of the total trade carbon embodied for paper industry. Lastly, according to measurement and key impact factor identification results of trade carbon embodied of paper industry, we put forward some policy suggestions.After the theoretical analysis and empirical research above, the results show that Chinese paper making industry carbon embodied in export trade experienced the undulation of rising first, and then falling and rising again, and accounted for about 20% of the total amount of Chinese paper industry carbon emission from 1995 to 2009. Besides, relevance between paper making industry and high carbon industry such as chemical products, electric power, natural gas and water supply industry becomes closer gradually, and proportion of CO2 emission is higher than the other industries in product process. What is more, the technical modification of production and the strength of energy consumption reduction can offset part of carbon embodied growth with a remarkable affect. Based on research conclusion above, we come up with four policies to operate low-carbon trade, which are Continuing to strictly eliminate backward production capacity, promoting the upgrading of the structure of the paper industry, strengthening policy supporting to the energy-saving industries, increasing energy-saving emission reduction technology promotion, focusing on intermediate input reduction, strengthening the low-carbon technology in paper products, participating to impose duties to gain the initiative in the tax collection.This research is mainly reflected in three aspects. Firstly, we divide the import goods into intermediate inputs and final consumption, which is accepted into the estimating category of the trade carbon embodied, and translate competitive input-output model into non-competitive input-output model to accurately measure the trade carbon embodied of Chinese paper industry. Secondly, we use non-competitive input-output table of World Input-Output Database from 1995 to 2009 by 40 countries and industry carbon emissions of environmental account database, which is benefit to get the trade carbon embodied amount and its development trend from the perspective of dynamic paper industry. Thirdly, using the method of structure decomposition, we comprehensive analyze why the implicit carbon in Chinese paper making industry export trade change constantly from all kinds of direct or indirect influence factors, including technology, structure and scale benefits according to the input-output model.