Study On Appraisal And Early-warning Of Safety Risk Of Coal Mines

The safety problem of coal mine has become the major event of coal minesustainable development, and how to discover and distinguish the potential safety riskis the most important of coal mine safety problem. This thesis mainly solves twoproblems on the basis of theoretical analysis and practical research. First, to solve theappraisal problem of security risk, namely judging whether coal mine has the securityrisk. This is mainly used in the regular judgment coal mine current security riskcondition. Second, to solve the early warning problem of security risk, namely howcarries on the daily security risk judgment and prompt through certain early warningtarget and early warning sector.First of all, the thesis mainly researches coal mine security risk appraisalprinciple and the method as well as the security risk early warning in the foundationwhich summarizes the correlation security risk appraisal and the early warning theory,and provides the theory and method foundation for the following research. The papercarries on the comprehensive summary to the commonly used risk assessment methodand the early warning method, analyses the advantages and disadvantages of thesemethods, and summarizes the applicability of the coal enterprise security riskassessment and early warning. Moreover, the thesis carries on certain combing to thetheory of risk assessment and early warning, and summarizes the common theory thatcan be used in the coal mine risk assessment and early warning. Then, according tothe particularity of the coal mine safety risk, analysis of the choice followed by theselection of security risk assessment as well as early warning theory and method, thethesis constructs coal mine safety risk assessment system and the early warningsystem based on grounded theory.Second, the thesis carries on the design and determination to the coal mine safetyproduction risk evaluating indexes system and weight. On the basis of analysis of coalmine production complexity, dynamics, randomness, relevance of disaster risk, thecoal mine safety production risk assessment indicators were proposed in combinationfrom scientific, systematic, comprehensive, easy evaluative, qualitative andquantitative. And on the basis of typical case studies, literature studies, carrying oninterviews and research. Based on "people, machines, materials, environmental, law"theoretical framework, the thesis establishes the human resources disposition, therules and regulations and the execution, the work environment, the surveying and guards against regulates waterways, NBC, prevents the coal and the gas prominent,the excavation system, the opportunity system, the coal mine inherent risk and so onnine big kind of coal mine safety production risk assessment target system on thebasis of extensive consultations with expert advice. And further refinement to105specific indicators. Moreover, in this foundation, the thesis carries on the coal minesafety risk evaluation index weight determination, the major heavy weights in theentire security risk evaluation system is calculated and summarized to determine thesafety risk evaluation criteria. According to the investigation and study questionnaire,uses the network analytic hierarchy process to carry on the determination of eachsecurity risk evaluation criterion weight. And based on weight determination,establishes the evaluation criteria of security risk evaluation standard.Third, the thesis constructs the coal mine safety risk early warning indicatorsystem and early warning mechanism. In order to achieve the purpose of managementdaily safety control, according to security risk evaluation indexes and investigationresults, papers use grounded theory on safety evaluation index for selection todetermine security risk warning index system, and to determine safe single indexwarning interval and comprehensive early warning discriminant functions based oncluster analysis and distinction analysis. First, from the efficiency of investment inhuman resources aspects, security and safety management system implementationefficiency to establish a measure of security risk warning index system; Secondly,based on security risk early warning indicators to establish early warning interval fora single indicator, to determine the critical value of the normal, mild early warning,moderate and severe warning four warning interval; Thirdly, using FISHER todistinguish the model construction security risk synthesis early warning estimatefunction once more, according to function and coal mine realistic target to estimatethe situation coal mine at present security risk police; Finally, depends on coal minesafety risk early warning system to establish the coal mine safety risk early warningdistinction and response mechanism.Fourth, the thesis summarizes the specific method of coal mine safety riskwarning, and builds the supporting mechanisms and management systems for earlywarning of security risks. The thesis summarizes the specific methods applicable tocoal mine safety risk warning, and builds a security risk early warning systemcoordinated implementation mechanisms, including in the area of human resources,investment in safety and security system and other aspects of the implementation mechanism on the basis of early warning indicators and early warning interval. At thesame time, and also to build the information management system for theimplementation of the security risk early warning system.Fifth, the thesis chooses Yuan shop coal mine as the object of study, conducts theconcrete test to the coal mine safety production risk early warning indicator system,mainly applies the security risk early warning target system the typical coal mine, andanalyzes its serviceability. According to the mine data in2011to calculate the safetyrisk early warning index of concrete numerical value, corresponding to a single indexearly-warning interval, respectively determine the mine in human resources, safetyinput and safety alert degree of the three aspects of the system. Then, the thesis teststhe integrated risk from two aspects. On the one hand, the use of FISHER’sdiscriminant model, will plug in specific warning index to get the overall alert degreeof security risks. This method can intuitively judge the alert degree of the security riskof the state, but also has certain drawbacks. FISHER discriminant model needs to beupdated regularly, so that the model can be very close to the status quo. On the otherhand, uses the random to carry on experience to weigh, judging the overall securityalert degree of the risk based on the judgment of the accuracy of individual indicators.In practical applications, the two methods are combined to use, in order to achievebetter warning effect.