| Global changes is a series of changes which include natural processes and human processes driven by interaction of atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. The human system exists in the earth surface system, and its changes have potential and time delay characteristics. As a special type of city, the ecosystem of China mining cities is a typical artificial ecological system, and human system is its dominant part. China mining cities have the spatial-temporal structure. After the rise and prosperity, the majority of mining cities have been entering resource failure stage presently. Due to global changes in the macroscopic background, coupled with changes in microscopic natural and human systems, the ecosystem of mining cities is occurring resource exhaustion, deformity, industry unemployment, ecological damage, environmental pollution and so on. Ecological system of mining cities presents vulnerability characteristics, and its sustainable development is facing challenging.Since the1990s, vulnerability caused by global changes both in natural and human systems has become focus by many international research programs and institutions. Vulnerability has become a new science of study on natural disasters to natural ecosystems and human sustainable livelihoods impacts. Foreign research on the natural system and nature-human interaction system has obtained a great number of achievements. Inheriting foreign research traditions, domestic research on vulnerability has made a great number of achievements on natural ecosystems (such as groundwater system, Karst landform system) and artificial ecosystem (such as ecological system of farmland, farming-pastoral zone), but research on vulnerability of city ecosystem, which also belongs to artificial ecosystem, is only at the beginning stage, such as the research on mining cities in Northeast china, which mainly includes the concept of vulnerability and its evaluation methods.At home and abroad, the concepts of vulnerability of humanistic system have yet to agree, which mainly adopts three elements of concept system of stress-exposure unit, sensitivity and adaptability by the natural disasters or natural-human interactions, but human system lacks exposure units, and the relationships of causes and results by pressure and sensitivity are often difficult to be divided. The methods of evaluation of vulnerability of human system are mainly the function model, fuzzy evaluation method and graphic method, but these methods lack consideration of complexity, multilevel and nonlinearities of ecosystem of mining cities.Based on the fundamental theories of studies on the general cities of ecological system, taking nonferrous metal mining city-Tongling City in Anhui province as an example, using2010as the time section, this paper examines the city ecosystem composition, structure and function from three sub-systems of the environment system, economic system and social system. Taking2001-2010as the time axis, and with the comparison of mining cities of Ma’anshan City, Huainan City and Huaibei City, and economically developed cities of Hefei City and Wuhu City in Anhui Province, this paper makes a analysis on the vulnerability of the characterization of three subsystems of environment system, economic system and social system in Tongling City, and on this basis, discusses mapping relationships of vulnerability between subsystem of ecosystem in Tongling city.Based on the the foundation of three elements of vulnerability research-stress exposure unit, sensitivity and adaptability, this paper suggests that the exposure unit subjected to disturbance from internal and external pressure is resistance of harmonious development between subsystems, and coordinated development degree of subsystems is coupling degree which is vulnerability characterization of high level system. Dynamic changes of subsystem index value, comprehensive value of subsystem and various composite system are the sensitivity expression, while the natural resilience and human behavior are the adaptive measures. The interaction between sensitivity and adaptability jointly promotes dynamic changes of the system behavior.Adopting the simplified system structure mode of vulnerability (the sensitivity and adaptability), this paper builds evaluation index system of vulnerability of economic system in Tongling City. Adopting economic development, environmental pressure and human response, this paper constructed the environmental economics system vulnerability evaluation index system in Tongling City. Adopting compatible method of analysis framework of ecological security’s P-S-R (Pressure-State-Response) and vulnerability of system structure mode (stress exposure unit, the sensitivity and adaptability), this paper establishes assessment index system of ecosystem vulnerability in Tongling City. Vulnerability of ecological system in Tongling City has the characteristics of complex, multi-level, nonlinear and ambiguity, so this paper constructes development model (approximate linear model, comprehensive index model and set pair analysis, variable fuzzy set analysis model) of subsystem and the total system coordination degree model (the arctangent function method, the spatial dynamic trend method and method of coefficient of variation), and by adopting the coupling coordination degree between the characterization of target vulnerability, the vulnerability of economic system, environmental and economic system and city ecosystem system was respectively evaluated in Tongling City. Finally, using the grey slope similarity correlation method and single index value, this paper systematically judges the main factors of vulnerability, and using the pressure response index model, this paper calculated interaction strength of city ecosystem system and analyses the formation mechanism of vulnerability.Research results show that:(1) The economic system of Tongling City displays vulnerability of structural malformations, unbalanced efficiency and the degree of higher foreign dependence. As a drive source, the vulnerability of the economic system enhances or enlarges vulnerability of the environmental system of ecological destruction and environmental pollution as well as social system problems of unemployment and slow development of city construction etc.(2)From2001to2010, the state values of sensitivity and adaptive of economic system in Tongling City presented positively increasing changes, and adaptive changes accelerated than sensitivity did. The velocity values of sensitivity and adaptive changes were different. The former firstly increased and then decreased, while the latter increased by degrees smoothly. The degrees of vulnerability firstly increased and then decreased, with segmentation points before and after the2005.(3) From2001to2010in Tongling City, environmental and economic system experienced degree changes of high vulnerability-moderately vulnerability-lower vulnerability, and vulnerability degree decreased;(4)Since2001, Tongling City ecosystem was at a high level and moderately vulnerability, and vulnerable grades were overall higher. The year of2004as a dividing point, vulnerability degrees dropped from high to moderate grade.(5) When the three types of system in Tongling City experiences disturbance from internal and external system, the characteristics of economic system is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the oscillation, secondly environmental and economic system, and lastely city ecological system.(6) The economic structure, economic quality and financial investment are comprehensive brittleness factors of economic system in Tongling City, and environmental pollution, shortage of resources and the human competently response were environmental and economic system comprehensive brittleness factors in Tongling City, as well as resources, environment, ecological pressure and ecological response are weakening the main comprehensive brittleness factors of ecological system in Tongling City.(7) Since2001, the trend of ecological pressure index generally dropped. Before2005, the number was larger than1, which indicated that economic activity intensity exceeds the ecological environment carrying capacity and ecological environment quality drops. Since2005and the following, the number begun to fall to], which indicated that economic activity intensity in ecological environment was within the threshold and ecological environment quality increased. Since2001, ecological response index showed the step up before or after2005, which indicated that Tongling City’s carrying out circular economy to develop the strategy to strengthen ecological environment construction had certain effects, but the ecological response index was below1levels during evaluation period, and environmental construction was still a formidable task in Tongling City in the future.Vulnerability is the new scientific tool to study sustainable development. According to the temporal dynamic changes regularity of ecosystem vulnerability in Tongling City, this paper predicts the trend of vulnerability in the future. Combined with the formation mechanism of vulnerability inTongling City, this paper establishes interpretation tools of policy between vulnerability studies and sustainable development, and scientifically guided sustainable development and policy strategy formulation for Tongling goverment. The ecosystem regulation system of Tongling City includes:(1) Taking the interactions by three-part of the government, business and the community, the government integrates wisdom and strength from multiple regulatory bodies.(2) From the administrative, economic and legal and other control methods flexibly, the government does supervision and incentive system of main body behavior.(3) The government develops the implementation of scientific control strategies, namely the cognition and practice of parallel, concept transformation and economic transformation synchronization implementation.Highlighting masterstroke, both subordinating, and additional-observation combination is a specific optimal control path of city ecosystem in Tongling City. The economic structure, three-industrial structure, industrial structure, and industrial structure regulation of copper are the main lines, the environmental management system and social system optimization are the two wings, and the economic structure, three-industrial structure, industrial structure, three-industrial structure, economic structure of copper, and three-industrial structure, industrial structure, the first industry structure and economic structure, industrial structure and non industrial structure, the tertiary industry structure regulation are the three regulation of auxiliary line. |
PDF Full Text Request