Industry Economic Costs Evaluation And Prediction Based On Carbon Reduction Regulation

The issue of climate change has become one of the hotspot in the field ofenvironmental economic management, resources policy and energy policy. Humanbeing need to control the greenhouse gas emission to respond to climate change.However, the process of controlling greenhouse gas emissions often lead to the loss ofsocio-economic aspects. How to solve the conflict of these two aspects of the problemled to a widespread concern. The regulation of carbon reduction is a complex policysystem to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This system involves many different formsof emission reduction policies and regulations. The implementation of the carbonemission reduction regulation will face a lot of difficulties and challenges, and alsowill have different impacts on different economic sectors during the critical period inChina’s economic transformation. There are a lot of urgent problems needed to besolved, like how to identify the most influenced industry to determine the aid industryand spur industry, how to coordinate and balance the economic development betweencarbon dioxide emissions on various China industry sectors. Therefore, this thesismainly analysis the industry economic development cost on carbon emissionreduction regulation with the multi-objective programming model. Obtain thefollowing aspects of innovative research results:(1) China’s carbon emissions reduction policies will have important impacts onmacroeconomic, industry economic and business operations. These policies will havedifferent effects on different industries and corporate which have different operatingcharacteristics. Based on carbon emissions reduction policies, some industries havedevelopment and expansion but some have widespread losses. After the analysis ofdriving factors on carbon emissions and the carbon emission amount in differentindustries, this thesis analysis the changes of industry production cost by carbonemission reduction policies in view of the industry’s perspective. Choose the electricpower industry and the automotive industry as the represented industry and provide atheoretical basis for the government further development industry policy.(2) Select the multi-objective programming model as the major method toanalysis the industry production costs changes by carbon emission reduction policies. The time variable is added to the original static model for estimation industryproduction cost. This dynamic expansion from the original static model could accordprediction analysis with the actual situation more consistently. The model predictsChina’s short-term industry production costs trend till2015. This prediction is alsounder the regulation of existing carbon emission reduction goal. Summed up thecharacteristics that the carbon abatement costs would rise with the economy booming.Prove that based on the different carbon emission characteristics of differentindustries, governments should make different carbon reduction regulation to differentindustries.(3) For the different industry characteristics, this thesis joined different industryreduction emission constraints to the original objective programming model.According to the characteristics of the automotive industry, the industry growthlimitation constraint is combined with the objective programming model. Accordingto the characteristics of the power industry, strict emission reduction target iscombined with the industry expansion constraint. Abatement cost sensitivitycalculations are made to increase the comparability between industries. Three kinds ofqualitative analysis are added to describe the influencing factors on the industry costof carbon emission reduction. The industry alternative products and technical levelimproving have the cost reduction trend on carbon emission reduction, but theessential factor prices have the trend of prompting industry carbon abatement costs.