Path Selection And Evaluation Of CO₂Reduction In China

In recent years, the issue of global warming has been concerned increasingly and widespreadly by the international community, being the crisis and challenges of all countries in the world. At present, China has been the lagestest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world, exceeding the United States, whose pressure on CO2reduction is increasing. Therefore, development path study on CO2reduction which suits to China’s national conditions is not only conducive to China’s sustainable development but also has important significance on mitigating global climate warming.This article mainly studies the issues related to China’s CO2emissions based on data analysis and model methods in the fields of energy and environment, analyzing the influencing factors of China’s energy consumption and CO2emissions, also the regional differences of these factors, forecastting China’s short-term CO2emissions in the future. By means of large-scale modeling idea, optimization analysis on the problem of CO2reduction path in China are conducted, furthermore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is creatively applied to the field of CO2reduction effect assessment. Through analysis, we find that:urbanization, population and GDP are mainly the three factors affecting China’s energy consumption, and the trend of cyclical fluctuations exist in these factors; there are maily five factors affecting China’s CO2emissions, namely per capita GDP, industrial structure, population, urbanization, and technological level, which exert an influence through direct and indirect ways. In addition, there are significant differences of these factors in different regions; China’s short-term CO2emissions will maintain a rapid growth trend continuely, forcasting results in different scenarios are very different; CO2emission produced by manufacturing and construction accounted for76.67%of the total CO2emissions from terminal sub-sectors. The sequence of first four maximum CO2emitters in the industry and construction is ferrous metalindustry, non-metallic mineral industry, chemical industry and non-ferrous metal. The industry structure of China needs to make further adjustments before2020for the achievements of China’s commitments to the international community on the emission reduction; During2008and2010, CO2reduction effect of every sector exists technology invalid phenomena widespreadly.The research results have positive theoretical reference value and practical significance for the adjustments of China’s industrial structure and energy consumption structure and for the formulation of China’s energy strategy and CO2reduction policies, helping China to achieve its low-carbon economy and sustainable development goal.