Research On Analysis And Evaluation Techniques Of Road Network Traffic Running Situation Under Disaster Conditions

In recent years, disasters have caused major damage to transportation networks in many countries, leading to significant economic disruption. Such as "9.11" terrorists attack in U.S, subway fire incident in South Korea, transit system bombings in London, earthquake cum tsunami disaster in Indian Ocean, Ike hurricane in United States and so on. The disasters in our country also occur frequently, such as snow and ice storms in south of china, wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province, and Yushu earthquake in Qinghai province and so on. With the rapid development of the social and economic, increase in population, construction, production and wealth increase quickly. The frequency and harmful levels of disasters increase quickly too. So it very important to set up disaster emergency management systems by analyzing the characteristics of disasters that have occurred. Traffic system is a very important part of disaster emergency management systems, using for evacuation and rescue workers or materials transport.The traffic system is the base of disaster relief and rapid and effective emergency transport organizations can significantly reduce loss of life and property in disaster. The technology for traffic running situation evaluating method under disasters is the base of emergency transport organizations, which directly determine the timeliness and effectiveness of transport organization. It is very important to develop a technology, which can be used for traffic running situation evaluation.This thesis studied on the analysis and evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster situation, the main research works conclude as follows:(1)Present a remote identification method of network traffic stateAccording to the characteristics of traffic data collected from network, based on new classification of traffic data series and new definition of traffic state, identification algorithm for traffic congestion and remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed. In order to meet the needs of different detector conditions laid, two type of remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed.(2)Present traffic reliability dynamic analysis method of road networkBased on the analysis on the needs of traffic running reliability of road network analysis, traffic running reliability of road network was defined and two reliability indexes are designed. According to the characteristics of traffic reliability analysis, the expressions and storage method of reliability network was designed. The concept of OD pairs network and traffic reliability dynamic analysis method was proposed.(3) Present a quantitative analysis method of disasters Impact to road networkAccording to the impact way and impact Level of disasters, the disasters was divided into different parts. Then the disasters impact scope determining method was designed based on GIS, and the disasters impact duration time estimation method was proposed. (4) Present traffic demand forecasting methods under disasterBased on the analysis on needs of traffic demand forecasting under disaster, the Implementation process of traffic demand forecasting methods under disaster was designed. The pre-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, post-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, Evacuation transportation way selection forecasting model, evacuation destination distribution model was designed.(5) Present evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disasterAccording to the characteristics of traffic situation evaluation, this paper designed the evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster based on expert system, proposed the framework of traffic situation evaluation expert system. The sources of knowledge, knowledge representation, knowledge storage structure and inference of expert system were designed.