Research On The Demand Forecast Analysis In Traffic Impact Analysis For The Yinzhou New Urban Development

During the period of Yinzhou New Urban rapid development, traffic impact analysis of urban development is very important, traffic demand forecast, as the basis of traffic impact analysis, must be treated carefully. As for the traffic demand forecast methods in China today, they are almost copies from foreign advanced countries, especially from USA. Also, we lack for research on the applicability of these methods to China. Furthermore, because we often lack for resource such as traffic software and data, and because this kind of condition will continue for a long time, it is urgent for us to conduct studies on the all kinds of demand forecast methods aiming to solve problems under all kinds of conditions, with full research on the character of the Traffic Impact Analysis. This is the research background of the thesis.Firstly, the thesis gives a brief review of the research that has been done on traffic impact analysis demand forecast home and abroad, especially in USA, including the present research situation, existing problems and research methods. Then, the thesis conducts deep research on the four steps (Trip Generation, Modal Splitting, Trip Distribution, and Traffic Assignment) of the demand forecast in Traffic Impact Analysis. In each step, it firstly reviews the existing methods in the Transport Planning and Traffic Impact Analysis, and then it gives assessment of their advantages, disadvantages and applicability. After that, it concludes all of the methods and their applicability to all kinds of conditions. Finally, based on the analysis of the character of each step and the truly situation of Yinzhou New Urban, my own methods are given. There are also examples to illustrate the methods used for each step.In the end, the thesis gives a summary of the main research achievements, innovations and the problems needed to be further studies.