Research On Several Issues Of Traffic Demand Forecast In Traffic Impact Analysis

With intensity of construction of city is more and more big, and the motorization level is higher and higher, the traffic problem is followed. The city is now under increasing traffic pressure. It is urgently to wait to find ways and methods to alleviate the urban traffic problem. Therefore, in the last century Traffic impact analysis(TIA) is carried out in our country, thereby to guide the project construction and control the project traffic demand. In foreign countries, TIA has been developed for a long time, and the achievements of research and practice have been relatively mature. These have a very good experience for reference to our country. But due to different national conditions and traffic conditions, we cannot completely copy the application. After a long time of accumulation and practice, we have made a great progress in the TIA, but there are still many shortcomings and defects, still need transportation workers to in-depth study and practice.In our country, there is still has a lot of problems of TIA not been very good solved, mainly displays in: traffic demand forecasting model needs to be further refined, contents and index of traffic impact degree evaluation is not clear, the traffic improvement measures are put forward by the executive power is not enough, etc. The author carries on in-depth theoretical research and a lot of practice, and explores the traffic demand forecast related problems of the TIA, mainly embodied in the following aspects:1. The author studies the background of the influence factors of road traffic growth ratio, and put forward the factors affecting the weight coefficient method to calculate the road traffic growth ratio; preliminary calculates the formula of road traffic growth ratio of Xi’an. The author partitioned Xi’an in some areas according to the construction and development level, and forecasts the road traffic growth ratio of the areas. These provide a reference for future work of the TIA in Xi’an.2. When making transportation division, the average capacity of transportation is often overlooked. This is should according to the situation of each city, each partition concrete analysis. The author analyzes the investigations of average capacity of passenger cars of Xi’an high-tech zone, and draws the conclusion: the average car capacity of Xi’an high-tech zone is 1.6 / car.3. The author also studies the influence factors of traffic distribution of construction projects, and puts forward the factors affecting the weight coefficient method can be used to calculate the distribution of the transport construction projects. The author enumerates the calculation process of the commercial network, passenger transport hub and road capacity influence factors.4. In this paper, the parking demand forecasting methods and indicators of projects are studied. The author points out that should not be only in accordance with cars standard of the project to calculate the parking demand, which should be forecasted according to the actual needs of the project. This won’t cause unnecessary waste, and it is not conducive to sustainable development.The author analyzes Xi’an’s typical projects, respectively according to different research focus, to translate theoretical research to the actual case, to provide experience for TIA for the future reference.