Human-water Harmony Assessment Index System And Methodsin Weihe River Basin

Harmonious human-water relationship is a fundamental prerequisite for thehuman-nature coordinated development. With the social and economic development, waterproblems are becoming more and more serious，have been one of the key factors whichseverely restrict the development. The human-water relationship is facing much morechallenges. It has been one of the focal questions to seek a common development betweenhuman and water, and to achieve human-water harmony. The research on human-waterharmony provides the scientific evidence for making or executing strategic planning of waterresources development and utilization, and demonstrates theoretical as well as practicalvalues.Reviewing the domestic and international research progress of human-water harmony,some works about the fields have been investigated and made some progress, which is verybeneficial to perfect the human-water harmony assessment theory. But the research onhuman-water harmony assessment index system and quantitative methods is still in anexploratory stage in China, and the accepted theoretic frame, the index system andassessment method have not been set up systematically. In view of the current researchprogress and problems on human-water harmony research, the paper will take Weihe riverbasin as an example to study index system and assessment method on human-waterassessment based on complex system theory and harmony theory.To begin the paper with introducing the concept of harmony, the features of harmonysystem, and the paper, firstly, defined the concept of human-water harmony, showed thecharacteristic of human-water harmony, the development stage of human-water harmony. Thepaper proposed the theoretical basis of human-water harmony research, the aims andprinciples human-water harmony in a basin. The author established the research system ofhuman-water harmony in this paper. The following results have been obtained.(1) Based on the concept of human-water harmony, harmony theory, complex systemtheory, and basic principle, such as, scientificity, representativeness, and systematicness, theauthor established the concept framework of human-water harmony assessment index system.In according to index screening criteria, the paper set up index system with capacity to assesshuman-water harmony, including2systems (water system and human system),7subsystems(water resources subsystem, water environment subsystem, water disaster subsystem, watermanagement subsystem, society subsystem, economic subsystem and technology subsystem)and77representative indicators. Based on consulting a large number of domestic and foreigndocuments concerning index grade standard, taking into consideration the actual conditions in Huanghe basin, the paper divided grade standard into5grades, from the grade I to V, whichare lowest level, lower level, medium level, higher level, and highest level.(2) Employing set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory, the paperestablished CW-SPA-VFS model based on the minimum entropy comprehensive weight. Thedevised model is applied to Weihe river basin to assess the comprehensive developmentdegree of WHCS from the year2000to2010. The results showed that the comprehensivedevelopment degrees of WHCS are low, belonging to the grade II or the grade III (lower level,medium level). The comprehensive development degrees of HWHCS are steadily upwards.(3) This paper introduced the grey relation entropy coordination degree model based onthe dissipative structure theory, the coordination development exponential model based oncomplex system theory, the coordination degree model based on the deviation coefficientminimization. The CGDCD model was devised to assess the coordination degree of HWHCSin Weihe river basin. The results showed that the coordination degrees of human system havebeen an increasing trend, and the coordination degrees of water system and human-watersystem declined slightly from the year2000to2010. It also indicated that the humanirrationally exploited water resources with the social development, destroying waterenvironment, causing flood and drought disaster, which reduced the coordination degrees ofwater system and human-water system.(4) In according to quantitative principles of human-water harmony, that is, thecomprehensive development degrees of complex human-water system, and coordinationdegree between water system and human-water system, the paper proposed harmonyassessment model based on multi-criteria multiplicative synthesis. The model was appliedinto Weihe river basin to assess harmony degree of HWHCS. The results showed that theharmony degrees of HWHCS have been an increasing trend, the harmony degrees values are0.576-0.696, belonging to the grade I to the grade II (the disharmony level and the criticalharmony level). Assessment results are similar by comparing with the results from contrastmodel, which confirms the feasibility of the models and reliability of results. The paperanalysed the development trend of human-water harmony in Weihe river basin through usingpermutation entropy method and trends judgement model, and harmony degree in Weihe riverbasin is a fluctuant growth style.(5) The paper established the artificial neural network of basin human-water harmonyassessment based on BP neural network. The assessment results showed that there is only adifference of5%between the results from BP neural network model and that of models inthis paper. It demonstrates that the results from BP neural network are reliable, and the BPmodel is feasible, and provides a common method for assessing human-water harmony.(6) To solve the problems for reasonably exploiting and using water resources in Weiheriver basin, such as, the shortage of water resources, the deterioration of the waterenvironment, the erosion of water and soil, the frequent disasters of flood and drought, thebackward management level, and the weak water-saving awareness, this paper presented thestrategic planning of water resources development and utilization based on the aim of human-water harmony.