On The New Evolution Of Maritime Security Order In East Asia

Maritime security situation in East Asia has been continued unrest since we enteredthe second decade of the21st century. Naval friction, conflict and confrontation arefrequent in East Asia. The intense degree of East Asian maritime disputes are rare in thecurrent world. As the maritime security environment has become to tighten, China’smaritime security interests are facing severe challenges. What happened on deepmaritime safety field in East Asia? Why it presents current unstable situation? How tocope with the challenge? For international studies, the answers to these questions havedeep academic meaning and policy value. This paper chooses the angle of “securityorder”, uses the systems theory approach to study the new evolution of current maritimesecurity order in East Asia. The research focus on the analysis of internal regularityfactors in this complex system---maritime security order, to clarify the current changesand its basic reasons of the East Asian maritime security order, and to explore China’scountermeasures.The first chapter defines a set of basic theoretical framework and researchapproach for the study of the evolvement of East Asia maritime security order bybuilding maritime security system model and explorating its evolution mechanism.Maritime security order is an organic system constituted by multiple correlative andinteractive order factors, which are subjective factors, objective factors, structure factorsand value factors. The systematic structure pattern of order can be investigated from twoapproaches: order model and order condition. In respect of order model, maritimesecurity order can be classified as hegemony security order, balanced security order,collective security order, security community order and hierarchical order. In respect oforder condition, the maritime security order can be defined as varying degrees of orderand unbalance, namely high, medium and low degrees. Essentially, the evolution ofmaritime security order is the changing of its systemic structure condition, including thetransformation of order model and order condition. To explain the process of the order evolution specifically, it embodies order evolution and order degeneration according tothe evolvement direction; and abrupt change and gradual change according to theevolvement speed. The maritime security order evolvement roots in the variation ofsystemic environment order factor and carries out via feedback mechanism in itssystematic process.The second chapter studies the historical development and present condition ofEast Asia maritime security order, which rooted from East Asia regional system anddeveloped as the East Asia history marched on. The East Asia maritime orderexperienced reconstructions for three times. The first reconstruction is from early16thcentury to20thcentury, during which period it transformed from the hierarchical orderdominated by China to the balanced order dominated by super powers. The second oneis from1930s to1940s, which presents the general global power balance patterndominated by the U.S. and the SSUR derived from multi-level balance order model. Thethird one is from the late1980s to the early1990s, when the order began to transformform the two-level power balance to the unipolar hegemony order dominated by theU.S. With respect to the order model, in the early21th century, the East Asia maritimesecurity order still pertains to the hegemony security order dominated by the U.S..However, the order now is a halfway hegemony security order as it involves withbalanced power order factor. With respect to order condition, East Asia security order isof low-level. In addition, it has an apparent defect in systematic dimension for its lowinstitutionalization. There will be a long time to go to form a maritime security orderwith high level systematism and powerful regulative ability. The low institutionalizationwill bring grievous side effects to the harmonious maritime security order.The third chapter review and evaluate the overall situation on the new evolution ofEast Asian maritime security order in the second decade of the21st century. Thischapter from three aspects to describe new evolution of the order, these are performance,trend and influence. Friction, conflict and confrontation have been frequent and theoverall security situation has been unrest in East Asian maritime security field since2010. Through teasing the trajectories of the marine security situation since2010, wecan find the nature of the changing situation, that is the new evolution of East Asianmaritime security order. On the new evolution of the order, is order degradation with theunbalanced trend in the order state level; is order gradient with the sea hegemonysystem evolution in the order model level. In the foreseeable future, East Asian maritime security order will remain unbalanced, and the order degree is difficult toimprove fundamentally. We from system and unit two aspects to investigate the maineffects of new evolution of East Asian maritime security order. At the system level, itintensified the governance dilemma of East Asian maritime security; at the unit level, itbrought new predicament of china’s maritime security strategy.The fourth chapter explores the agents of the new evolution of maritime securityorder in East Asia. There are directly causal relations between the current and newevolution and its external environment and internal elements. Environmental factors thataffects the evolution more include realities in international order, maritime politicsand international security that are closely connected with maritime security order butoutside the system. As for the current East Asia’s maritime security order, changes inthe three fields appear mainly transformation of East Asia’s regional order, evolutionof international maritime order, and alterations of the geopolitical security environmentin recent years. Changes of system environment in three dimensions:‘East Asia’,‘maritime’ and ‘security’, constitutes external agents of the current and new evolution ofEast Asia’s maritime security order. The changes of system environment promote notonly the evolution of the order directly, but the modification of the elements of the order,then the evolution of the order indirectly. The three environmental changes out of thesystem of the order lead respectively to modification of the East Asia’s sea powerconfiguration, deepening of the maritime interest unconformity and adjustment of themaritime security strategy. The changes in the elements of the order constitutes theinternal agents of the current and new evolution of the order.The fifth chapter explores China’s strategic response under the background of thenew evolution of East Asia’s maritime security order. The new evolution of East Asia’smaritime security order is forming China’s new strategic environment of maritimesecurity. To guard its interests of maritime security in East Asia, in the new evolution oforder, China should adopt a regional maritime security strategy accommodating to thenew situations. This chapter, based on systematically examination of China’s maritimesecurity interests and their real threats in East Asia, discusses effective and feasibleoptions for China’s maritime security strategy in East Asia. By Maslow’s hierarchy ofneeds theory, China’s maritime security interests in East Asia can be graded coreinterests, important interests and secondary interests, from essential requirements toadvanced requirements. On the basis of levels of interest requirements, objective threats to levels of interests in the new evolution of the order can be examined. We can discusscountermoves that take care of China’s interests by studying and estimating the threatsand challenges to China’s maritime security interests. Under the background of the newevolution, China’s maritime security strategy in East Asia should determine short-termand long-term strategic targets, maintain strategic policies of ‘active defense’ and‘restricted sea power’, apply varieties of strategic means and policy approaches, andpromote the improvement of maritime security order in East Asia, and then eventuallyguard China’s maritime security interests.