Volution Mechanism Stydy Of Collective Behavior In Mass Incident

The famous American political scientist Samuel Phillips Huntington stated the famous paradox that "modernity produces stability and modernization instability."At this stage, our country is in the key historical period of transition and development in the economic system, social structure and social pattern:from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, from a traditional society to a modern society, from an agricultural society to an industrial society, from a closed society to an open society. Population, resources, environment, efficiency, equity and other social contradictions are increasingly serious. Economic dysfunction, social disorder, and mental imbalance are common, we can say this is a critical period of China’s reform and development, but also the social contradictions have become increasingly prominent outbreak.The emergence of social conflicts in recent years, resulting in the number of occurrences of mass incidents rising, the scale of participation in groups expanding, the degree of mass behavior intensifying, which has already caused serious influence on China’s social stability. Since January1,2000to September30,2013, there are3145pieces of mass incidents, which have been reported by the officially publishing print media and the having "Internet News Information Service License" network media. The social impact and damage of life and property caused by these mass incidents are incalculable. In the light of this, scientific prevention and reasonable disposition of mass incidents have crucial importance for our country building a harmonious society and promoting the modernization process. In this historical context, this study is carried out to research the evolution mechanism and development law of mass incidents and group behavior, so as to provide a theoretical basis and scientific references for the prevention and disposal of mass incidents. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) Diffusion model of rumor information in mass incident. In order to study the diffusion characteristics under different mode of transmission, this paper, based on BASS Model, constructs the diffusion model of proper information and rumor information in mass incidents, and simulate the diffusion rules and state differences of two types of information under the condition of different parameters through the Matlab software. The result shows that the growth of two types of information diffusion curve is affected by channel coefficients; it has positive relationship between the final scale and information accuracy in informal channels.(2) Evolution mechanism of collective behavior in mass incidents. A dynamic theory model of panic buying evolution has been built by referring to the theory of group dynamics, and incorporating a mediator variable--the judgment for psychologically expected value of panic buying. Based on case study of the salt panic buying in China during the Japan nuclear crisis, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of panic buying under the public crisis and arrived at some conclusion: the individual’s taking part in panic buying was driven by their inherent need; in the process of judgment, the individual was not only concerned about the change in the cost of panic buying, but also the authenticity expectations of the incentive information and the adequacy expectations of the resources; the active force of the group’s internal and external environmental factors affected individual’s decision-making through affecting its value judgment of psychological expectations.(3) Situation assessment of collective behavior in mass incidents. Based on the three elements-activity, interaction and sentiment-of collective behaviors in52mass incidents in China during2007-2011, we find the collective behavior in mass incidents has significant difference in activity, interaction and sentiment. The grade evaluation method is proposed to estimate the evolution of collective behaviors in52mass incidents and classify them into five grades. Then the influence factors on the three elements are analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The regression results demonstrate that the impacts of location, casualty, inner-group relations, group scale and duration on the three elements are very significant.(4) Coping strategies of collective behavior in mass incidents. Based on the foregoing findings, this paper proposes some reasonable comprehensive policy proposals from the three dimensions-external environment, population structure, and information communication, to deal with mass incidents and group behavior, in order to provide reference for relevant stakeholders.Originality of this study is that:(1) In order to study the diffusion characteristics under different mode of transmission, this paper, based on BASS Model, constructs the diffusion model of proper information and rumor information in mass incidents, and simulate the diffusion rules and state differences of two types of information under the condition of different parameters through the Matlab software. The result shows that the growth of two types of information diffusion curve is affected by channel coefficients; it has positive relationship between the final scale and information accuracy in informal channels.(2) A dynamic theory model of panic buying evolution has been built by referring to the theory of group dynamics, and incorporating a mediator variable--the judgment for psychologically expected value of panic buying. Based on case study of the salt panic buying in China during the Japan nuclear crisis, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of panic buying under the public crisis and arrived at some conclusion:the individual’s taking part in panic buying was driven by their inherent need; in the process of judgment, the individual was not only concerned about the change in the cost of panic buying, but also the authenticity expectations of the incentive information and the adequacy expectations of the resources; the active force of the group’s internal and external environmental factors affected individual’s decision-making through affecting its value judgment of psychological expectations.(3) Based on the three elements-activity, interaction and sentiment-of collective behaviors in52mass incidents in China during2007-2011, we find the collective behavior in mass incidents has significant difference in activity, interaction and sentiment. The grade evaluation method is proposed to estimate the evolution of collective behaviors in52mass incidents and classify them into five grades. Then the influence factors on the three elements are analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The regression results demonstrate that the impacts of location, casualty, inner-group relations, group scale and duration on the three elements are very significant.The practical implication is that:Based on the foregoing findings, this paper proposes some reasonable comprehensive policy proposals from the three dimensions-external environment, population structure, and information communication, to deal with mass incidents and group behavior, in order to provide reference for relevant stakeholders.