The Development Trend Of China’s Mining Industry And Competitiveness Rating Research

This paper summarizes the mining development history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan for nearly200years, discusses the mechanism of mining development, establishes a model of mining development cycle, divides mining development cycle into four periods-the sprout period, the rapid-developing period, the transition period and the slow-declining period (or shrinking period), and clarifies the order of the waves of the sectors within the mining industry.This paper systematically analyzes the consumption history of54minerals for100years in the United States,46of which follow the "S"-shaped law of per capita mineral resource demand, finds that the peaks of per capita consumption of the mineral resource of the same usage arrive at the same time and establishes an atlas for mineral resource consumption by dividing these54kinds of minerals into nine categories on the basis of arrival time of their climax.This paper sums up China’s mining industry development since its foundation, and divides China’s mining industry development into four stages:a slow-developing stage, a faster-developing stage, a mining depression stage and a booming stage. This paper also analyses the current situation, internal structure and spatial pattern of China’s mining industry.This paper forecasts the supply and demand trends of11kinds of minerals-coal, oil, natural gas, iron, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc,nickel, potash and cement-in the next20years. In the next10years, the demand gap of coal, oil, natural gas, copper, aluminum, nickel and potash will continue to expand, and the import dependency will continue to rise; the demand gap of iron ore, lead and zinc will reduce and the import dependency will decline.This paper estimates the production value trend of11kinds of China’s mineral resources in the next20years. The climax of China’s mining output will arrive around the year2020, when the total mining output will be7trillion yuan, and then it continue to decline. China’s20-year mining boom brought by industrialization will be gone forever.This paper establishes a mining competitiveness evaluation index system which covers30indicates in4levels for the first time, evaluates the mining industry competitiveness of6countries-China, the United States, Australia, Russia, Canada and Japan-with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and finds out the advantages and disadvantages of mining industry in these countries.This paper promotes some advices for sustainable development that China should:(1) actively promote China’s mining industry to shift to overseas and China’s central and western regions;(2) develop coping strategies in advance, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the mining industry to deal with the climax of various of industries;(3) formulate relevant strategies, plans and policies aiming at the slow-declining period of China’s mining industry after10years, and deal with the problems after entering the depression period, for example, the sustainable development problem of the mining town, the employment issues and development problem of other mining-related industries;(4) settle the issues of China’s mining industry such as low concentration, poor management, low profit level, imperfect system of "going out" mechanism as soon as possible;(5) grasp the strategic opportunities of China’s mining industry sustainable development in the next10years, establish the market mechanism of fair competition, elevate the status of private mining enterprise, make a mining company with modern management level, and enhance China’s international competitiveness in the mining industry.